The picture is for illustrative purposes only
According to American bookmakers and cryptocurrency platforms, Donald Trump will win the US presidential election on November 5, 2024. This forecast provides support for the dollar, which may rise even higher after the victory.
According to the forecast cryptocurrency forecasting platform <a href="http://www.time.news/sec-delays-decision-on-grayscale-and-franklin-templeton-ethereum-etf-proposals/" title="SEC Delays Decision on Grayscale and Franklin Templeton Ethereum ETF Proposals”>Polymarket, the probability that Donald Trump There will be a president in the upcoming elections 58%. A chance to win Kamal Harris estimated by 42%.
In total, platform users have bet about $2 billion on the winner of the 2024 election. However, it is worth noting that some Polymarket clients may sympathize with the former president, who actively supports cryptocurrencies.
However, bookmakers also believe that the former president has a higher chance of winning. According to Oddschecker.com, Trump has about a 56% chance of winning, while his opponent has only a 44% chance of winning.
James Knivertonsenior corporate forex dealer at Convera.com, believes that the chances of Donald Trump winning are increasing. That supports the dollar as there are concerns that its tariff proposals could lead to inflation and force the Federal Reserve to tighten its monetary policy. As a result, the dollar exchange rate will rise.
Additionally, a Harvard CAPS/Harris Center poll in swing states found that 48% of early voters chose Trump, while only 47% chose his rival. However, 51% of early voters across the country supported her compared to 43% for Donald Trump.
According to a national poll conducted by FiveThirtyEight, Kamala Harris has more support from voters - 48.5% to 46.1% for Donald Trump. However, such polls cannot be taken with complete confidence, as they are usually conducted by supporters of the Democratic Party and have often underestimated the former president’s chances in the past.
The chief executive of his campaign, Tony Fabrizio, noted that when the poll shows the voters themselves, the former president is in charge.
Currently, the American currency is experiencing support due to such data and forecasts. Investors in the stock market also tend to believe that Donald Trump will become president and the dollar will strengthen.
As the survey showed, about a third of the investors plan to increase hedging ahead of the US elections, expecting an increase in bond yields and the US dollar in the context of a decline in the S&P 500 index The survey participants named geopolitical conflict (33%). , accelerating inflation (26%), and a recession as the biggest risks in the US (19%), a US election sweep (14%) and a systemic credit event (8%).
Investors do not see a threat of armed conflict between Democrats and conservatives during the presidential election, although many experts warn of such risks. In an interview Maria Bartiromo On Fox News, Donald Trump said that he does not expect chaos in the election from his supporters. However, he noted that, if necessary, the army could be deployed in the elections of the United States to fight against the “radical left” and “danger from within.”
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Interview Between Time.news Editor and James Kniverton, Senior Corporate Forex Dealer at Convera.com
Time.news Editor: Welcome, James! Thank you for joining us today. There’s been a lot of buzz around the upcoming U.S. presidential election, especially surrounding Donald Trump’s potential candidacy. Based on recent predictions and betting odds, can you give us an overview of how likely it is that Trump will win on November 5, 2024?
James Kniverton: Thank you for having me! According to the latest assessments from American bookmakers and platforms like Polymarket, there’s a growing belief that Donald Trump holds a significant advantage with a probability of about 58% for winning the election. Even Oddschecker.com shows his chances at around 56%. This is generating considerable interest—and perhaps concern—among financial markets.
Time.news Editor: Interesting! You mentioned the implications for the dollar. How exactly do Trump’s chances impact the currency exchange rates?
James Kniverton: Well, the support for Trump and the expectation of his victory can strengthen the dollar. Investors are wary of potential inflation resulting from his proposed tariffs, which might prompt the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy. Simply put, if investors think Trump’s policies would drive inflation and lead to a proactive Fed, they’re likely to move towards the dollar, pushing its exchange rate up.
Time.news Editor: That’s a crucial point. Additionally, there’s been some fluctuation in voter support as well. How do you interpret the recent polling data, especially the discrepancies between the national polls and those conducted in key swing states?
James Kniverton: The national polls show Kamala Harris with a slight edge over Trump, but swing state polls indicate a narrower race with Trump leading among early voters. For instance, in certain swing states, 48% of early voters chose Trump compared to 47% for Harris. This conflicting data reflects the volatility of public opinion and how critical swing states are in influencing the overall outcome.
Time.news Editor: It sounds like there’s a lot at stake. With nearly $2 billion wagered on these predictions, what does that say about public confidence in Trump’s campaign? Could this enthusiasm also stem from his ties to the cryptocurrency community?
James Kniverton: Absolutely! Trump’s previous support for cryptocurrencies may resonate with certain voter demographics, piquing the interest of those who have invested heavily in that space. Betting trends often mirror public sentiment, and this substantial wagering can be interpreted as a confidence vote in building momentum for Trump’s campaign. Of course, it’s important to consider the motivations of bettors, some of whom might inherently favor Trump.
Time.news Editor: That’s fascinating. As we approach the election, do you think the betting odds and current political climate could shift significantly, or are we likely to see a continuation of these trends?
James Kniverton: We’re likely to see fluctuations as more developments unfold. Campaign strategies, debates, and world events can significantly sway public opinion and betting patterns. If concerns about inflation rise or if any major incidents come to light, the odds can shift rapidly. That’s the nature of both politics and finance—unpredictable and often intertwined.
Time.news Editor: Thank you, James! Your insights into the interplay between the political landscape and economic implications are invaluable. We look forward to watching how this all unfolds in the coming months.
James Kniverton: Thank you for having me! It’s an exciting time, and I’m eager to see how both the election and the markets evolve.