A group of scientists have led research at the University of Washington (United States) that suggests that life expectancy will continue to increase at the end of this century. They estimate that human beings could live to be 125 years. Many could reach 130 years.
Scientists estimate that the chances that a person will live at least to 126, 128 or 130 years this century, they are 89%, 44% and 13%, respectively. This is detailed in the letter published in the magazine ‘Demographic Research’. They have used statistical models to examine the extremes of human life.
The study is based on statistics bayesiana. This is a very common tool in modern statistics. The researchers estimate that the record of 122 years lived will be broken. At least one person will live between 125 and 132 years. For the estimation, a follow-up has been made of people who have lived more than 100 years from 10 European countries. Also from Canada, Japan and the United States.
Overcoming the barrier of 122 years
“As things stand, ‘supercentenarians’ are rare, and the probability of breaking the current age record only increases if the number of supercentenarians grows significantly. With a continuously growing world population, that is not impossible,” he details. he study.
“Someone who lives to be 110 years old has about the same chance of living one year longer than, say, someone who lives to be 114, which is about half,” the scientists add.
The authors of the study published in ‘Demographic Research’ conclude that “no matter how old they are, once they reach 110 years old, they continue to die at the same rate. They have overcome everything life throws at them, such as disease. They die for reasons that are somewhat independent of what It affects younger people. It’s a very select group of very robust people.”