2024-10-02 16:19:23
When a hurricane hits the country, the deaths are then counted – at least every hurricane is followed by an indication of the number of people killed. But according to recent research, this official number is a fraction of the true victims.
When Hurricane Helene ravaged the southeastern United States, it was that time again: the day of reckoning. According to a recent count by the US broadcaster CNN, at least 180 people have died as a result of the storm, while NBC reported at least 175 deaths.
But, say researchers from Stanford and Berkeley, this is the proverbial tip of the iceberg. Their research published in the journal says: “Such tropical storms lead to increased mortality over the long term. “Creation” published. Hundreds become thousands of deaths.
Researchers led by Solomon Hsiang, co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab at Stanford University, and Rachel Young, a political scientist who now teaches at Princeton and works for the US Department of Urban Development, analyzed a lot of data.
These are related to 501 hurricanes from 1930 to 2015. Computer models programmed by scientists then came out this number: During this period the 3.6 to 5.7 million deaths that would have occurred without natural disasters would not have been given.
According to the study, a hurricane is expected to result in an average of 7,170 to 11,430 additional deaths, depending on the scenario. A big difference to the previous official statistics: According to these, an average of 24 people died directly during the typhoon, for example by flooding or under the ruins.
Researchers argue that disasters can lead to people losing their jobs and therefore their health insurance. Or they will spend money on home repairs that they have actually saved for retirement. The state may also lack funds for medical equipment due to infrastructure repairs – which may cause additional deaths.
The exact drivers of higher death rates should be determined in further studies, ask Hsiang and Young. “We initially thought we could see the delayed effects of tropical cyclones on mortality by six months or a year, similar to the effects of heat waves,” Young said. But in fact, the increased death rates are still visible, on average, more than 14 years after the disaster.
“People in the typhoon area are dying sooner than expected,” he said HsiangProfessor of Environmental Social Sciences. “When a big storm hits, there’s a whole chain of effects. Cities have to be rebuilt, families have to be displaced or social networks have to be destroyed. These cascades have public health consequences. “
It follows from model calculations that almost one in six deaths among the same young people, aged one to 44, is related to hurricanes. Among infants under one year of age, it is said to be one in four.
Mothers suffer from long-term effects
“These are children who were born the year after a summer hurricane, so they may not have experienced the event internally,” Young said. This suggests that mothers can still feel the effects even years after a disaster.
Wind speeds of hurricanes from 1930 to 2015 did not increase. However, tropical cyclones have become more important since 2001. And according to Rachel Young, it does not stop there: “We expect tropical cyclones to become more dangerous and destructive due to climate change.”
Hajo Zeeb vom Leibniz-Company for Prevention and Disease Research in Bremen believes that the method of the two US researchers is possible: “They describe their method in great detail and clearly,” said Zeeb. The connections between economics and health outcomes cannot be researched because they require large data and complex calculations. In any case, Zeeb considers Hsiang and Young’s design worthy.
Looking at the current situation in the US makes the number of consequences clear: Storm “Helene”, which made landfall in northwest Florida last week as a hurricane in the second category of the highest, moved a little weaker in the north direction. And so “Helene” left behind a massive destruction in six states.
As of Wednesday afternoon (local time), more than a million households were still without power. Of these, nearly half a million are in the state of South Carolina alone, according to data from the US PowerOutage website.
dpa/here
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