Ibovespa falls 0.53%, to 118.7 thousand points, but increases almost 3% in the week By Estadão Conteúdo

2023-09-16 10:00:23

© Reuters. Ibovespa falls 0.53%, to 118.7 thousand points, but increases almost 3% in the week

Here and in New York, investors avoided taking risks in the last session of the week before decisions on the Selic and the US benchmark interest rate, both next Wednesday. Thus, the remained in a relatively narrow range this Friday, from a low of 118,666.46, in the late afternoon, to a high of 119,780.20, a variation of just over 1,100 points until closing at 118,757.53 , down 0.53%. Financial turnover rose to R$29.6 billion, on the day stock options expired. In New York, losses were between 0.83% () and 1.56% () in the session.

During the week, with the increase in the previous four sessions, the Ibovespa gained 2.99% until Friday, in what was the best performance since the interval between June 5th and 9th, when it had advanced 3.96%. In this way, it more than reversed last week’s low of 2.19%, which had followed gains of 1.77% and 0.37%. The index has progressed in three of the last four weeks, coming from losses in the previous four, in the interval starting on July 24th and extending to August 18th. In the month, the Ibovespa rose 2.61% and, in the year, 8.22%.

For Danilo Igliori, chief economist at Nomad, analysts’ projections about next week’s interest rate decisions are very close to “consensus”, but there is “divergence” about what may emerge in the statements, as an indication for the next steps in conducting monetary policies. “More than the justifications that will support decisions, analysts and operators will be interested in signs of what could come ahead”, he emphasizes. In addition to the Fed and Copom, there will be a decision from the Bank of England, the following day, Thursday.

For the Copom, “there is broad consensus that next week there will be another 0.5 percentage point cut in the Selic and doubts fall on whether it will already be revealed that the Committee is considering the possibility of accelerating the rate of reduction to 0.75 percentage point later this year”, adds the economist, noting that the base scenario continues to be to maintain the pace of cuts, with the Selic ending 2023 at 11.75% per year.

In turn, in the USA, inflation data released this week prior to the deliberation on interest rates “came a little more under pressure”, says Helena Veronese, chief economist at B.Side Investimentos. “But when we look at the opening of the indicator, what made this inflation a little higher, both in the CPI for consumers and in the PPI for producers, were volatile items, such as air tickets, fuel and used vehicles. The core, which excludes these more volatile and seasonal items, continued to slow down”, adds the economist, who believes that the reference interest rates in the United States will be maintained at the meeting.

With the caution that prevailed this weekend eve, the most liquid shares on B3 (BVMF:), which yesterday had risen as a block, today had a mostly negative performance, in variations that gained momentum towards the end of the session. Thus, Vale ON (BVMF:) dropped 0.83%, at the day’s low at closing; Petrobras ON (BVMF:) and PN, which showed losses of less than 1% earlier, ended the day without a single signal, with ON down 1.47%, at the day’s low at closing, and PN, slightly lower. increase of 0.06%. The shares of large banks had a negative variation this Friday, between -0.20% (Bradesco (BVMF:) PN) and -3.63% (Unit do Santander (BVMF:), floor of the day at closing). BB (BVMF:) ON went astray, with a slight increase of 0.34% this Friday.

During the week, however, the performance was positive for the main Ibovespa shares, with Petrobras (BVMF:) (ON) and Vale (ON) showing gains of around 6.8% in September – during the week, the highlight for Vale, which advanced 4.24%. Among the large banks, the highlight of the week was Bradesco PN, up 3.76% in the period – only Santander Unit (-1.81%) did not advance in the period, among the largest financial institutions.

Trimming the week’s gains, Petrobras’ shares did not follow the moderately positive performance of , with the share rising one more notch, now at US$ 94 per barrel, after a new sequence of encouraging data on the Chinese economy, this Friday. . In China, industrial production rose 4.5% in August, and retail sales rose 4.6%, figures well above expectations. The only data that came in below expectations was investment in fixed assets, which grew 3.2%”, notes Guide Investimentos in a note.

At the winning end of the Ibovespa in this Friday’s session, Energisa (BVMF:) (+4.90%), Azul (BVMF:) (+3.36%) and São Martinho (BVMF:) (+3.00% ), with Via (-15.56%) – still in the wake of the pricing of follow on -, IRB (BVMF:) (-7.24%) and Carrefour (BVMF:) Brasil (-7.04%) in the opposite corner.

The financial market remains optimistic about the performance of shares in the very short term, according to this Friday’s Broadcast Bolsa Thermometer. Among the participants, 57.14% believe that the next week will be one of gains for the Ibovespa and 42.86% predict a neutral variation for the index, with no responses indicating a decline. In the previous survey, 60.00% said that the stock market would rise this week and 40.00% said it would be stable, also without projections of a fall.