2024-02-09 12:58:42
The draw for the 2024/25 season in the Nations League will take place today.
As reported by İdman.biz, the opponents of the Azerbaijani national team will be selected from 12 teams. The tournament will be held for the fourth time in history.
Our team, which will play in League C for the third time in a row, is in the second pot before the draw in Paris. Our team, which is looking for a head coach, has three possible opponents in the 1st pot, 4 in the 3rd and 5 in the 4th pot. This is due to the fact that Azerbaijan cannot be included in the same group as Armenia, which is in the first basket. Lithuania and Gibraltar, who are facing relegation to League D, will meet in the playoffs.
11 potential opponents met with the Azerbaijani national team in different years. Among the familiar teams, only Gibraltar is new. Based on the results of previous meetings with these opponents, we can determine the ideal and undesirable groups for our team.
15 duels with the powers that be
It is not easy to choose your desired opponent in the first pot, which includes stronger teams. Romania and Sweden are on the decline, Luxembourg has gained momentum in recent years – in general it’s not easy to choose. Azerbaijan’s crushing 3-0 victory over Sweden in the EURO 2024 qualifying round should not fool anyone. Suffice it to recall the more painful result at the start of the tournament against an opponent who had no problems at that time – 0:5. With the exception of the only victory over the Swedes, the opponent won with a clean sheet in all matches. The duels with Romania were more unsuccessful. All matches were lost. 6 points in 7 matches with Luxembourg (relatively, if we take the principle of points in friendly matches as a basis) look relatively promising. Considering the results of the previous 15 matches, Romania should be considered the undesirable team, and Luxembourg the more suitable one.
Romania – 4 games, 4 defeats
Sweden – 4 games, 1 win, 3 losses
Luxembourg – 7 games, 1 win, 3 draws, 3 losses
Dangerous middle teams
Northern Macedonia, Northern Ireland and Slovakia, located in the third pot, can be considered average and also unstable teams in Europe. Our team has already had enough fights with all three of these opponents. There are few victories in these fights, more defeats. An ideal option for our team, which has never lost to Cyprus, which is considered the weakest in the basket, is a representative of the island. The most undesirable is Slovakia. True, this opponent suffered two defeats in matches with our team. But at the same time, ours lost to them 8 times.
North Macedonia – 8 games, 1 win, 2 draws, 5 losses
Slovakia – 10 games, 2 wins, 8 losses
Northern Ireland – 6 games, 1 win, 2 draws, 3 losses
Cyprus – 3 games, 2 wins, 1 draw
Weakest of the weakest
It is not so important to take into account the strength of the teams in the 4th pot. Because if our team intends to set a serious goal and develop, it must be able to take 6 points from any opponent in the weak basket. In fact, there is no significant difference in the strength of these teams. Unfortunately, this cannot be said for sure about our team, which is still looking for a head coach. That is why we are forced to look for the weak even among the weak. For our team, which has never met Gibraltar, the teams of Belarus and the Baltic countries are considered tough. But recent meetings with Estonia showed that there is a danger of slipping and losing points. You might think that compared to the Baltic countries, who prefer basketball to football, Belarus, which has traditions but is experiencing a period of decline, is relatively dangerous. The most suitable option is the winner of the match between Lithuania and Gibraltar. True, in this basket we do not have an advantage in balance with the Lithuanians. However, the current position of the opponent gives reason to think about taking six points from him.
Belarus – 6 games, 3 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss
Lithuania – 3 games, 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss
Gibraltar – never met
Estonia – 10 games, 2 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses
Latvia – 5 games, 1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss.
From 3 to 15
Based on the composition of the most suitable and unsuitable groups, you can estimate the number of points scored. If events go well, it is quite possible for our team to even win the group with 15 points. Because it is quite plausible to beat Cyprus and the winner of the Lithuania-Gibraltar match, and at least Luxembourg in Baku. Of course, you may want to get more points in matches with strong opponents. But in such a group, 15 points seem more realistic.
Being in the same group with Romania, Slovakia and Belarus promises a fight not to end up last. It is very difficult to get points from the first two opponents. If Belarus fails to take points, the danger of finishing the group with only 3 points is not far off. Of course, unexpected victories over strong players or losses of points in matches with obvious outsiders will draw a line under the possibilities. We witnessed this in the EURO 2024 qualifying stage. Results that changed the odds included a point loss against Estonia in Baku and a sensational home win over Sweden.
Ideal group: Luxembourg, Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Lithuania/Gibraltar.
Undesirable group: Romania, Azerbaijan, Slovakia, Belarus.
Vugar Khairullaev
İdman.biz