It is likely that Ukraine’s offensive in Russia’s Kursk region is aimed at forcing the Kremlin to at least partially divert its troops from the offensive in the Donbass to counter the threat on Russian territory. However, Moscow has not stopped yet.
The Russian military continues to pressurize Ukrainians in Eastern Ukraine. There, the insufficiently equipped and overstretched Ukrainian forces are only able to slow down and not stop the enemy’s advance, the publication writes.
“In such key cities as New York, Toreck, Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk, which are crucial for holding the remnants of the Donetsk region, there has been intense fighting and heavy artillery shelling since the beginning of the Ukrainian offensive (in the Kursk region, ed.). According to some accounts, New York’s defenses may have completely collapsed,” the article reads.
In addition, the shelling of cities in the Donetsk region intensified. These attacks may be part of a larger strategy by Russian forces. In this regard, Ukrainian units are concerned that the deployment of forces and assets to the Kursk region may jeopardize their ongoing defensive operations.
Cities such as Chasiv Yar remain active battlegrounds, while Ukrainian forces in Toretsk and Pokrovsk are reporting an increase in the number of Russian aircraft departures, sometimes as many as 10 per day.
Ukrainian forces in Pokrovsk are undermanned, making defensive operations difficult and counterattacks virtually impossible. A major threat is that the city is close to the front line and in the crosshairs of Russian artillery, and its fall could prompt Russia to encircle Konstantinovka, Kramatorsk and Slaviansk.
So, despite the surprise and great political benefits of the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region, the picture in Ukraine itself is far from rosy. The Russian command remains focused on the offensive in the Donetsk region, using infantry, armored vehicles and aviation. It can bear fruit.
Ukraine expects that Russia may eventually have to move troops from other occupied Ukrainian territories to counter Kiev’s offensive in the Kursk region.
American officials say a small number of Russian troops are already partially withdrawn from Crimea, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions and may be sent through the occupied Donetsk and Luhansk regions to counter an offensive by Ukrainian armed forces in Kursk. Ukrainian sources also report that Russian troops may be withdrawn from the Kharkiv front.
But it is very important that there are no signs of the withdrawal of Russian troops from Donbass. If true, it would indicate Moscow’s determination to prioritize this offensive, even as Ukrainian forces continue to maintain their superiority in the Kursk region. Despite heavy losses, Russia’s continued gains in the Donbass are strengthening its resolve.
However, several factors may still dampen Moscow’s resolve. First, if Ukraine continues to advance in Kursk, Russia may be forced to withdraw more forces from occupied territories, which could weaken its defensive posture. This could increase the range of Ukrainian drone strikes, which would further undermine Russia’s long-range strike capabilities.
“Secondly, the Ukrainian brigades currently being trained could be deployed to reinforce the Kursk or Donetsk regions, depending on where Russian forces show signs of weakness.” Such flexibility would allow Kyiv in 2025 to launch a counterattack, not just another attack in the occupied Donbas,” the publication said.
According to The Telegraph, the Crimean peninsula should not be forgotten either. Following Ukraine’s destruction of the Black Sea Fleet and the “accelerated dismantling” of Russia’s anti-aircraft defense network in Crimea, the Russian military there went on the defensive.
“Guerrilla attacks have intensified, and Ukrainian intelligence indicates that Crimea will be the next target, and the Kerch bridge, already a frequent target of Ukrainian sabotage, is likely to be destroyed in the near future.”
Although a conventional offensive to retake Crimea seems ambitious, the movement of Russian forces to strengthen Donbass and Kursk may open the door to more active Ukrainian covert operations on the peninsula,” the authors of the article believe.
Parengta pagal „The Telegraph“ inf.
2024-08-22 10:16:28