2023-05-23 06:00:00
23/05/2023
Again war in Europe.- José Pardo de Santayana
The war in Ukraine has become a tinderbox that any day can blow Europe up. Ukraine may win the war, but it will probably lose the peace. For now, the dialectic of wills between Washington and Moscow has led to a dead end, while the US strategic priority is in the Indo-Pacific. In addition to the military, the contest is taking place in the economic-energy, technological and cognitive spheres.
Escalating the conflict to expel Russian troops from all Ukrainian territory would put Europe at high nuclear risk.
To drag out the war so that Russia bleeds to death would devastate Ukraine, put the unity of the EU to the test and severely damage its economy.
An internal change in Russia is possible, although unlikely, and would force to act according to the circumstances. If the Russian Federation destabilizes in the process, we could find ourselves with an even worse scenario.
Another option is to try to stop the escalation, to later contain and cool down the conflict, which would lead to some kind of tense coexistence with cold war profiles.
In any case, the unity of the EU must be protected and Spain cannot leave NATO’s southern flank unguarded.
Document prepared by Jose Pardo de Santayana. ET Artillery Colonel (DEM). Analyst at the Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies (IEEE).
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