IEEE – Historical tipping times. The invasion of Ukraine and the decline of Western power.

2023-05-16 06:00:00

16/05/2023

Historical turning times. The invasion of Ukraine and the decline of Western power.- Emilio Lamo de Espinosa

We are witnessing a social transformation unparalleled since the Industrial Revolution that is leading us to a historical turning point (post-Europe, yes, but also post-the West?) caused by two key variables: an unbalanced demography between the West and the rest of the world and that affects Europe above all. But that has been coupled with a technological convergence since the West has lost the monopoly of technoscience that it has enjoyed for at least three centuries and that was the cause of its power.

Economics is a positive sum game; we can all win (or lose). But power is a zero-sum, agonizing game, and the emergence of new powers in the world reduces the relative power of the West just as much. We are not facing absolute decline and the West has many assets, and although it also has serious internal problems, it will remain an unrivaled player for many decades.

But the invasion of Ukraine heralds a period of turbulence on the international scene marked by the “Thucydides trap”: the tension between an emerging power (China) and a declining one (USA), a tension that articulates not only the foreign policy of those two giants, but the entire international order.

However, at the current juncture one can also glimpse the possibility of a new peace, peace based on a balance of power and interdependence, a liberal peace, a “hot peace” full of tensions, rather than a “cold war”. Well, unlike the old USSR, China does not intend to export its sociopolitical model and is indifferent to the political form of other countries.

Document prepared by Emilio Lamo de Espinosa. Emeritus Professor of Sociology (UCM), former President of the Elcano Royal Institute.