The strongest El Niño in at least 1,000 years is fueling global disasters and threatening food supplies as world leaders debate climate funding at the COP31 summit in Antalya, Türkiye, according to The Guardian.
“We are supercharging our weather and El Niño will be a risk multiplier,” said Celeste Saulo, secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization.
Weather Phenomenon Could Cost the Global Economy $11 Trillion
The International Fund for Agricultural Development warned in a report titled ‘Food Systems Under Stress: Building Resilience from the First Mile,’ released in collaboration with the Türkiye Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, that the weather phenomenon could cost the global economy up to $11 trillion over five to six years, as reported by The Guardian Nigeria News and healthwise.punchng.com.
The estimate accounts for direct agricultural damage as well as wider disruptions to infrastructure, commodity markets, consumer demand, and global trade.
Speaking to Newsweek, Pieternel Boogaard, who oversees IFAD’s climate investments and work, explained that the expected $11 trillion in financial losses over roughly five to six years derive from a simulation wherein a modest-sized corn producer forfeits approximately 60 percent of standard yearly net earnings when severe dry spells coincide with elevated energy and fertilizer expenses.
Analyses by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco indicate that within the United States, the ongoing weather pattern might have already driven up prices by roughly 0.3 percentage point over the April-to-July period.
Small-scale farmers, who produce about one-third of the world’s food, face compounding pressures as energy and fertilizer price shocks combine with drought. In Kenya, maize crop production has already dropped by 40%, reducing food available for refugees and straining local absorption capacity, according to The Guardian Nigeria News Nigeria News. Sumit Roy, assistant general manager of the palm oil programme at Solidaridad, said that climate risks are concentrated at the farm level while resources remain concentrated further downstream.
Carlos Isaza, head of Solidaridad’s coffee program in Colombia, recalled that the 1997-1998 El Niño brought crop yield declines of up to 60%. Hambulo Ngoma, a researcher with the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center, said that El Niño has devastated the region, while Fairtrade America CEO Amanda Archila said Fairtrade producers are already seeing impacts.
Drought Corridors Reduce Staple Crop Yields
An IFAD assessment identified an agricultural drought corridor stretching from Senegal through Nigeria to Ethiopia and Sudan, where suppressed rainfall during major El Niño events has historically caused localized rainfall deficits of 20% to 35%, according to Punch Newspapers. These deficits directly translate into yield reductions of 15% to 30% for staple rain-fed crops including millet, sorghum, and maize.
Highlighting the necessity of equipping cultivators prior to the onset of climate-driven emergencies, Türkiye’s Minister of Agriculture and Forestry, Ibrahim Yumakli, pointed out that grower resilience relies fundamentally on water availability, reasonably priced farming inputs, funding options, insurance policies, and dependable marketplaces.
In Southern Africa, land preparation and summer cereal planting have commenced under mixed weather conditions and below-average early-season rainfall in parts of Angola and Zambia, according to the European Commission. Climate forecasts predict drier-than-average conditions across central and southern SADC areas through March 2027.
Meanwhile, West Africa and Central Africa are concluding their main agricultural season with a strong regional production outlook, showing total cereal yields between 62.8 and 71.1 million tonnes, well above the five-year average according to CILSS PREGEC, while Bangladesh and North Korea report highly favourable rice, maize, and cereal outlooks. Conversely, Latin America and the Caribbean islands have faced devastated agriculture due to El Niño–induced drought and record precipitation deficits.
Funding Shortfalls and Displacement Risks at COP31
Delegates at the COP31 summit face stark warnings regarding adaptation finance shortfalls. While the annual financing needed by 2035 is estimated at $305bn, only a fraction is currently delivered, leaving vulnerable countries struggling to respond, as noted by The Guardian.
“People living with the climate crisis cannot afford to wait for another round of diplomatic promises,” Mohamed Adow, founder of Kenya-based thinktank Power Shift Africa, said, emphasizing that resources are needed on the ground rather than pledges.
“It’s so frustrating as countries that have done the least to cause climate change are being left with bills we can’t afford,” said Kathy Jetn̄il-Kijiner, climate envoy for the Marshall Islands. “This El Niño is adding stress and we have a limited capacity to respond.”
Alexander De Croo, head of the United Nations Development Programme, warned in Antalya that hedging against the impact of El Niño requires $36 billion immediately, whereas delaying action could double the cost to $73bn, according to Dawn. “We are very concerned as the forecast for El Niño this year is the worst one ever,” Antón Leis García, assistant high commissioner of UNHCR, said, expressing deep concern over the worst forecast ever for El Niño, particularly in the eastern horn of Africa where forced displacement is prevalent.
Meanwhile, the UNHCR and related UN reports note regional damage estimates of $10bn to $20bn from the African Development Bank, alongside UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean projections of cumulative GDP losses of at least 2pc over three years, which push 4.8 million people into poverty.
Earlier coverage: El Niño Intensifies and May Shift Global Weather Patterns