In the calculation, the institute has not included a number of cancers, including a well-treated and common form of skin cancer (basal cell carcinoma) and a pre-cancerous stage of breast cancer (DCIS). If they do count, there will probably be about 232,000 new diagnoses by 2032, or more than 26 per hour.
aging
According to the IKNL, the sharp increase in the number of expected cancer diagnoses is mainly due to an aging population. The Netherlands has more and more elderly people and they are also getting older than before. Another factor is that people sometimes lead unhealthy lives. Smoking, drinking alcohol, being overweight and not exercising much increases the risk of people developing cancer. Medical technology is also getting better and better, and as a result it is now possible to find early tumors that would have been discovered much later in the past, but that only contributes “a limited part” to the increase, according to the IKNL.
The number of cases of skin cancer will increase the fastest in the next ten years. The IKNL expects an increase of 40 percent, as a result of “excessive exposure to UV radiation from the sun and tanning beds”. Being overweight will also cause more people to develop liver cancer, bile duct cancer or kidney cancer.
tax
The increase in the number of cancer diagnoses will put a significant burden on healthcare, which is already understaffed. The patients themselves may also suffer from the consequences for a long time. After treatment, they may be chronically fatigued. After recovery, they may become partially or completely incapacitated for work, which could put some people in financial difficulties.
The increase in the number of cancer diagnoses can no longer be prevented, the IKNL expects. The aging population is in full swing, and past smoking addictions and unprotected sunbathing cannot be reversed. But quitting smoking and preventing obesity can reduce the risks.
According to the IKNL, the risk of dying from cancer is decreasing. In 2000, there were approximately 292,000 people who had been diagnosed with cancer in the preceding ten years. In 2032, that group will number about 780,000 people. The center expects that by 2032 one in thirteen Dutch people will have or have ever had cancer.
To prevent
Director Johan van de Gronden of the foundation for the fight against cancer KWF says that it is necessary to “maximize the prevention of cancer in politics and society, otherwise we will be confronted with unsustainable healthcare costs in a few years’ time. That means, among other things, drastic measures to combat smoking and vaping and a much more ambitious policy on alcohol prevention.” (ANP)