2024-04-17 07:27:23
IMF ‘World Economic Outlook Report’
‘Growing alone’ in the U.S., raised for the second time this year
China and Japan also maintain ‘January outlook’ as is
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) published its World Economic Outlook (WEO) report on the 16th (local time) and stated, “We maintain this year’s forecast for Korea’s economic growth rate at 2.3%.” While adjusting the global economic growth rate to 3.2%, which is 0.1 percentage points higher than the forecast in January of this year, Korea’s growth rate was maintained as in the January forecast.
This is interpreted to be in accordance with the analysis that the Chinese economy, which has a significant impact on Korean exports, is “still affected by the real estate recession.” The January growth forecast for China and Japan this year was also maintained at 4.6% and 0.9%, respectively.
On the other hand, the US economy’s ‘growth alone’ was also proven in the IMF outlook report. The IMF, which raised its forecast for this year’s U.S. growth rate by 0.6 percentage points in January, predicted that it would increase it by another 0.6 percentage points this month, reaching 2.7%.
Pierre-Olivier Gourlinchas, chief economist at the IMF, expressed concern that “such independent growth of the United States could stimulate inflation, cause divergence in the global economy, and lead to an imbalance in monetary policy.”
Economist Gourinchas emphasizes optimism about the global economy as a whole, and based on this, “the global economic growth rate this year and next year will remain stable at 3.2%, and the median headline (overall) inflation will increase from 2.8% at the end of 2024 to 2.8% in 2025.” “It is expected to fall to 2.4% by the end of the year,” he said, adding, “Most indicators continue to point to a soft landing.”
However, he added that the recent strength of the U.S. economy “reflects strong demand that is still overheated,” and that “a cautious and gradual approach to easing the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy is necessary.” It was also pointed out that the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East region, where tensions are increasing, and the decrease in trade due to the conflict between the United States and China could act as a variable in global inflation.
New York = Correspondent Kim Hyun-soo [email protected]
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2024-04-17 07:27:23