2023-05-16 13:58:43
Dhe International Monetary Fund expects Germany to only achieve comparatively low growth rates in the coming years. The economy is likely to stagnate this year, and then grow by one to two percent from 2024 to 2026, according to an IMF analysis on Germany’s economic prospects published on Tuesday. In the long term, average growth is likely to be less than one percent again.
In the short term, high energy prices are a burden for many companies. In the long term, the aging population, a lack of production growth and bottlenecks on the labor market would have a negative impact.
“The uncertainty is great”
“There is a lot of uncertainty,” said the IMF experts, who collected information in Germany in the first half of May. Inflation will remain high, but at least fall. An inflation rate of around 4.5 percent is expected at the end of the year , down from 7.6 percent in April So-called core inflation excluding volatile energy and food prices is likely to fall later and at a slower pace.
Fiscal policy must still be cautious this year in order not to fuel inflation. The aid measures to cushion the high energy prices could benefit poorer sections of the population in a more targeted manner.
At the same time, the IMF emphasized that Germany had so far come through the energy crisis well after Russia stopped supplying gas. Politicians gave the right answers and the fact that the winter was mild also helped.
The day before, the EU Commission had already presented its spring forecast. She sees the economic prospects for the euro zone a little rosier than in winter – but not for Germany. From Brussels’ point of view, the Federal Republic of Germany is one of the tail lights this year in terms of economic dynamics, as can be seen from the spring forecast. Only Estonia, with minus 0.4 percent in gross domestic product (GDP), is worse off than Germany and Finland, which are each credited with meager growth of 0.2 percent. The federal government expects growth of 0.4 percent to be twice as strong in Germany.
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