Due to the increase in the cost of basic foodstuffs caused by the war in Ukraine, the International Monetary Fund fears “social unrest” on the African continent.
Is there a risk of witnessing “food riots” in sub-Saharan Africa? In a report on Africa published on April 28, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is concerned about the occurrence of “social unrest” following the sharp increase in food prices. Due to the war in Ukraine and soaring food prices, “fears about food security have sharply increased” increasing “the risks of social unrest” in vulnerable countries, keeps Thursday the institution in its report.
“We are very concerned about the recent surge in food and fuel prices” in Africa, told AFP the director of the African department at the IMF, Abebe Aemro Selassie, who fears the risk of “social protests”. And to add: “This shock hits the poorest in an extremely targeted manner, by increasing food prices, those of fuels and transport in general, and at the end of the chain the producers of goods and services which raise their prices” .
We are witnessing, in fact, a surge in food prices to a level never before reached. According to the index of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), which includes the tariffs of vegetable oils, cereals or dairy products, the highest record dates from 2011. This one has was beaten during the month of March.
Maurice Gourdault-Montagne, diplomatic adviser to Jacques Chirac from 2002 to 2007, warned this month that the sanctions adopted by the West against Russia could indeed result in an increase in the price of agricultural products and raw materials. the first with the consequence of possible “food riots”, particularly in Africa.
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As a reminder, in 2008, rising staple food prices gave rise to “hunger riots” in some thirty countries, including Senegal and Cameroon, as well as in the Maghreb and the Caribbean.
Sub-Saharan Africa imports 85% of its wheat consumption
In its report entitled “A new shock and little room for manoeuvre”, the IMF considers the increase in wheat prices to be “particularly worrying”. Sub-Saharan Africa imports no less than 85% of its consumption of this cereal. In Tanzania, Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal, and Mozambique, import levels are notably substantial. For the IMF, the countries most affected by food insecurity are Madagascar, the Democratic Republic of Congo and the states around the Sahel.
The institution is pessimistic about the future situation. According to the international organization, it could be even more catastrophic because “many more countries in sub-Saharan Africa were in better fiscal health in 2008-2009 to absorb the shock”.
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