2023-08-28 08:00:56
It’s a shock that comes quietly and yet will shake our social and economic model. The Montaigne Institute publishes this Monday a report entitled “Demography in France: consequences for the public action of tomorrow” which assesses the consequences of the accelerated aging of the French population. It highlights the important place that immigration will take in the years to come.
The most fertile country in Europe, France has not escaped a slow decline in its birth rate, which began in the 1970s. Thus, the fertility rate was 1.8 children per woman in 2022. This is in below the bar of 2, the famous “renewal threshold” below which the population decreases. This will have medium-term effects: according to INSEE, France will experience a “peak” in 2044, with 69.3 million inhabitants, before stabilizing around 68 million.
“France is about to experience a decline in its population that only immigration could make up for in the short and medium term,” writes Bruno Tertrais, deputy director of the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS) and author of the note from the think tank. liberal tank.
This contribution has the mechanical effect of increasing the share of the French population from recent immigration, says Bruno Tertrais, based on INSEE data. “Immigration accounted for nearly three-quarters of population growth in 2022,” he explains.
Less educated population
This phenomenon poses challenges. Immigrant populations, generally less educated, fit less well into the job market, the note states. “France stands out for its rather less qualified immigration, on average, than that of other industrialized countries. This contributes to raising the unemployment rate of immigrants,” explains Bruno Tertrais.
Indeed, the employment rate of these populations is up to 10 points lower than that of people without direct immigrant ancestry. Other parameters must be taken into account, such as self-censorship, the non-equivalence of foreign diplomas and discrimination in hiring: in a 2015 study the Institut Montaigne pointed out that a Muslim man was four times less likely than a Catholic to be contacted by a recruiter.
Indispensable to the economy
Yet immigration is essential to the functioning of an aging society. “The renewal of our workforce depends on it. Due to the fall in fertility, the French economy will lack arms and brains,” said Bruno Tertrais. Immigration that is not likely to dry up, since according to the political scientist, the economic development of African countries – from which a large part of immigrants come – will encourage departures by increasing disposable income. A development which could, moreover, allow them to arrive on French soil with more qualifications.
However, we should not rely on immigration to come alone to the rescue of our pension system. “Massive” immigration (2 million arrivals per year for twenty years) would be needed to stabilize the ratio between the working population and the retired population.
Finally, the effects of a hypothetical increase in the birth rate in France will only be felt after 2040, making this dependence on arrivals sustainable. “Pro-natalist policies can help redress the bar, but only in the long term. And if the incentives are important, the birth rate is not decided by decree”, concludes the researcher.
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