2024-08-02 02:31:48
Donald Trump’s victory in the US elections could lead to lower oil prices. This is how representatives of well-known Wall Street banks assessed the impact of the presidential race results in a conversation with Bloomberg, Day.Az reports with reference to Lenta.ru.
Goldman Sachs and Citigroup analysts note that the Republican candidate’s promises to increase domestic oil production are unlikely to be fulfilled. However, if Trump’s proposed trade tariffs have a significant impact on the global economy, this could reduce the cost of raw materials by as much as $11-$19 per barrel. According to Daan Struyven, head of Goldman oil research, Trump’s re-election creates risks of prices falling to $75-$90.
Bankers also do not rule out that Trump could push up oil prices if he reimposes sanctions on Iranian exports. They cite his “maximum pressure” strategy, which backfired last time. Iran’s oil output could fall by about a million barrels a day, or nearly a third, during a second Trump term. But other OPEC+ exporters will try to pick up the slack, limiting oil price gains to about $9 a barrel.
Despite Trump’s pledge to boost US oil production, banks expect little material impact on output, which is already at record levels.
“Even though Trump appears to have a more oil and gas-friendly agenda than the Democratic nominee, his immediate impact on physical oil markets is likely to be limited,” Citigroup said.