2023-06-28 23:30:04
The arrival of the El Niño climatic phenomenon may have effects on the world and Brazilian economy. El Niño is characterized by the abnormal heating of the waters of the Pacific Ocean, which results in climate changes in various parts of the world.
In this scenario, Finance professor at Faculdade Anhanguera, Luciano Bittencourt, points out that in the context of the world economy, El Niño can cause imbalances in agricultural activities and food production. In regions such as South America and Southeast Asia, extreme weather events such as droughts and floods can lead to reduced agronomic production, affecting food prices and generating inflationary pressures.
In addition, reduced productivity in agricultural areas can also impact exports from these countries, affecting international trade and global supply chains.
“With the warming of the waters of the Pacific Ocean, in the equatorial region, one of the impacts is the decrease in the production of commodities and fishing in countries like Chile, Colombia and Peru, generating an increase in prices and consequently in world inflation. In the South and Southeast Asia regions, however, we may have a drop in the production of fruits, rice, wheat and peanuts, and in Indonesia, harming the plantations of corn, rice, sweet potatoes, cassava, tea, coffee and tobacco”, he points out. Bittencourt.
Still in the world sector, the professor points out that Oceania, Australia and New Zealand may suffer from impacts on agriculture. In the islands of the central region of the Pacific Ocean, however, there is an increase in rainfall, mainly harming tourism, which is one of the main sources of income.
In the case of the Brazilian economy, El Niño can have both positive and negative consequences.
“The North and Northeast may register a reduction in precipitation, harming agriculture and an increase in drought in some areas; the Center-West has irregular rainfall, where there is an increase in fires, uncertainties in agriculture and agribusiness, generating price increases; the Southeast will see an increase in temperatures and more rainfall, helping a better harvest, despite being the off-season for sugarcane, they will have better pastures, with that an increase in the production of meat, milk and derivatives, and the South will having more rainfall, in addition to an increase in temperature, which could harm the development of the winter crop, especially at the end of the cycle and during the harvest, in addition to possibly delaying the start of the summer crop”, explains the expert.
Luciano reinforces that all sectors end up being impacted by El Niño.
“Whether in agriculture with crop failure of important items for people’s daily lives, in agribusiness, where we will also have a lower production, causing the price of commodities to increase, in the lack of basic sanitation, especially in the poorest countries, as well as as a greater demand for medical care in the face of diseases such as leptospirosis due to the access of rains or respiratory diseases due to the dry climate”.
To prepare for the economic impacts of El Niño, the professor recommends monitoring weather patterns, diversifying the economy, developing resilient agricultural practices and establishing risk management policies. “As for the population, the weather phenomenon can significantly affect, especially vulnerable communities, causing damage to infrastructure, disruption of food supply and increased prices of basic products. Therefore, support and assistance measures, such as social assistance programs and infrastructure rehabilitation, are essential to deal with impacts and ensure the resilience of people who may be affected”.
Bittencourt ends by showing that it is increasingly necessary to generate sustainable growth and awareness of the population against climate phenomena, not only in Brazil, but in the world.
Source: Luciano Bittencourt, Professor of Finance at Faculdade Anhanguera
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