In 2022, the finances of the welfare state could be a little less degraded than expected, while remaining deep in the red. This is shown in a report by the Social Security Accounts Committee, presented on Tuesday, July 12. The deficit of the general scheme and the old age solidarity fund (FSV) would reach 16.8 billion euros, or 3.6 billion less compared to what was initially anticipated. A correction attributable to the dynamics of receipts, which is likely to prove to be stronger than what the first figures carried out at the end of 2021 suggested.
If confirmed, the data released on Tuesday is part of the improvement trend observed after the shock caused by the health crisis. In 2021, the hole in the coffers of the “Secu” was partially absorbed, amounting to – 24.4 billion euros (with the FSV) against – 38.7 billion in 2020, which constituted an unprecedented imbalance. The « perspectives » for the current financial year must however be commented on with caution, as they occur in a “context of greater uncertainty” since the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, as the report recalls.
The revenue collected by the system in 2022 would be 15.6 billion higher than ” prediction “ made in the Social Security financing law adopted in the last quarter of 2021. A good surprise linked in particular to the favorable situation of the job market, even if the net job creations have lost momentum a little over the recent period. At the same time, cash receipts should grow faster than expenditure, despite various “additional costs” : measures “to deal with the Covid epidemic”, “anticipated revaluations at 1is July of social benefits »raising the index point and continuing to implement “Ségur de la santé agreements” which will increase the salaries of staff in many healthcare establishments, etc.
“Cumulative” charges
As in previous years, health insurance is the branch that is suffering the most. His balance “would recover” of course, but remaining “very negative” : – 19.7 billion in 2022, against – 26.1 billion in 2021 and – 30.4 billion in 2020. This social protection sector is facing a “accumulation” fillers: some of them have a character “exceptional”in connection with the fight against the epidemic (purchase of vaccines, etc.), while others are long-term – in particular those, already mentioned, on the remuneration of agents.
Old-age insurance, i.e. the basic pension scheme for several categories of assets (private sector employees, self-employed workers, etc.), would also be in deficit in 2022, but in much smaller proportions than health insurance: – €2.3 billion. A result synonymous with slight deterioration (if true), because, in 2021, the “hole” was smaller (-1.1 billion euros). This change is largely explained by increased expenditure, due to the anticipated increase in pensions (+4% on 1is July). At the same time, the FSV, which provides – among other things – the financing of the minimum old age, would return to surpluses “for the first time since the financial crisis” of 2008 (+€1.1 billion).