2023-04-27 17:50:00
Meanwhile, Swedbank’s chief economist, Nerijus Mačiulis, believes that an increase in the minimum wage of more than 13 percent will not be a problem. is very risky.
“We can take the result of this formula as a basis for discussion. If the decision were to be made here and now, i.e. well in advance, we would not see very great obstacles before making a decision to increase the minimum wage to the extent that these calculations show, says Aurelijus Dabušinskas, head of the Economic Department, in an interview with “Kurier Wileński”. Bank of Lithuania.
The Ministry of Finance calculated that, according to the forecast, the ratio of the minimum monthly salary to the average salary should reach 46.3 percent this year.
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The Tripartite Council has determined that the ratio of minimum to average pay should not be less than 45 percent. and higher than 50 percent. It must correspond to the average of the last three years for the EU countries with the highest ratio of average to minimum pay in the quarter.
Now the minimum monthly salary is 840 euros.
Read more: Occupations by highest and lowest earnings
The formula may decide to raise the minimum
“You always have to take risks. The war in Ukraine is still going on. We were aiming for a result of 50 percent, but we decided to temporarily depart from this formula and choose the minimum monthly salary. The result of the formula, combined with the analysis of the current situation and forecasts for the future, may decide to raise the minimum – points out Aurelijus Dabušinskas.
Increasing the minimum wage is risky
“In good times you can raise the minimum wage without any consequences, but there may be circumstances where it is very risky. Today, with bankruptcies and falling exports, a further rapid increase in the minimum wage is risky, economist Nerijus Mačiulis points out.
According to the specialist, the increase in the minimum within a year by more than 10 percent. it may further weaken exports and increase unemployment.
— I think that now that we see signs of recession in Lithuania and Lithuanian export markets, we should not exaggerate with the increase in the minimum wage. It is much safer to help lower-income residents by increasing the income tax-free allowance, considers Mačiulis.
In 2022, the average remuneration without bonuses was EUR 1,663.6. The wage forecast is that this year the average wage will increase by 9.1 percent, next year — by 5 percent. This means that the average earnings without bonuses in 2024 could be €1,905.7.
Read more: From next year – an increase in untaxed income
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