2023-10-24 14:56:00
Osinter HerrDr8 is an analyst who has tried his hand at calculating the consumption of artillery ammunition by both sides in the Ukrainian conflict. He based his calculations on public data regarding pre-war ammunition stockpiles. This analysis offers valuable insights into military strategies and resource allocation during conflict.
Information related to Osinter HerrDr8’s work is primarily available on Twitter and blogs where they have shared findings and insights. These analyzes are valuable for understanding conflict dynamics and the use of military resources.
Given this, Osinter HerrDr8 has calculated (https://twitter.com/HerrDr8/status/1709115816203923838?s=20) artillery ammunition consumption by both sides based on public data on prewar stockpiles, estimated production, foreign shipments, and public statements by officials.
According to his calculations, in the fourth quarter of this year, Ukraine should for the first time begin to surpass Russia in the consumption of artillery ammunition: 9 thousand per day against 7.
In the third quarter of 2023, Russia still held the advantage: 12,000 per day versus 8.
Of course, the calculations are approximate + there is an inaccuracy in the graph: in February-April 2022, Ukraine, according to some estimates, fired 20-40 thousand ammunition per day until its reserves were exhausted.
But the graph shows the trend very well: even if Russia increased ammunition production from 1 million in 2022 to 1.5 million in 2023, this is still not enough to maintain the same rate of fire – from 63 thousand per day in February- In March 2022 it fell to 12 thousand in July-September 2023 and is expected to fall to 7 thousand by the end of the year (this is also a forecast).
But there are also unpleasant factors that need to be discussed.
1. Russia makes up for the shortage of artillery shells with airstrikes and air superiority. And although FABs with UMPC are not very accurate (same goes for NAR/NURS), this is still a problem for Ukrainian troops on the front lines.
2. The West was unable to increase the supply/production of artillery ammunition for Ukraine at least to the level of 20 thousand per day, so that the Ukrainian Armed Forces could dismantle the cemented Russian positions following the example of as the Russian armed forces did in Severodoneck.
3. There is no reason to believe that Ukraine will be able to maintain the current rate of artillery fire in 2024. Western officials say that warehouses are running out and that production increases are not even close to keep up with consumption. True, Russia is in the same situation, and increasing ammunition production to 2 million per year will not solve the problem of bullet shortages.
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