About a quarter of the followers of Torah Judaism will leave ‘Agouda’ in a separate run, some in favor of ‘Degal’ | If ‘Degal’ adds a Hasidic representative to the list or to the ‘Council’, the spillover from ‘Aguda’ will increase | Only 10% of voters are interested in Goldknopf at the helm About half of the voters prefer Gafni The complete data
A survey conducted by the research company Askaria, headed by CEO Dodi Dror, examined for the first time the possible consequences of a split in Torah Judaism and running in two separate lists of the Torah Flag and Agudat Israel. Conducted in full telephone sampling among 400 respondents, with a sampling error of up to 4.9% on August 28-30.
First, the participants were asked if the elections were held today, which party they would vote for. Among the Lithuanian participants, 77.3% will vote for Torah Judaism, compared to only 66.5% among the Hasids and 7.2% of the Sephardim. As expected, 74.7% of the ultra-Orthodox in Spain plan to vote Shas.
If the two factions, the Torah flag and Agudat Israel, compete separately, the numbers change dramatically: while 73.4% of Lithuanians will vote for the Torah banner, and 12.5% of Hasidim will join them, only 49.3% of Hasidim will vote for Agudat Israel. In other words, a little more than a quarter of the followers who planned to vote for Torah Judaism, will not vote for Agudat Israel in the event of a separate run, with the vast majority preferring to vote for the Torah flag.
The figures are even more dramatic in the event that ‘Degal’ adds a Hasidic representative to the Council of Torah Elders, in such a case, out of the Hasidic who previously declared that they would vote for Agudat Israel, 13% switch to Deghol Torah. Similar data will also occur if Degel Torah chooses to join its ranks in the Knesset with MKs from the Hasidic sector.
The survey also examined the question of leadership of the list. Among all Torah Judaism voters, 49.6% want Gafni to be the leader, unsurprisingly 78.5% of Lithuanians are interested in him and so are 11.1% of followers. Only 10.2% are interested in Goldknopf as chairman (including 21.7% of the Hasidic voters) compared to 15% who are interested in a representative of another faction in Agudat Israel to be the head (including 30.7% of the Hasidic voters). 25.1% answered ‘don’t know’.
In the case of a separate run, Agudath Israel voters were asked who they would prefer to see in the top of the first four representatives of the party: MK Meir Proosh leading with 28.3%, followed by Yitzhak Goldknopf with 26.3%, Yaakov Tesler with 11.2% and Israel Eichler with 9.2%. Quarter The respondents chose ‘other’ or ‘don’t know’.
For that matter, the central faction which, according to the agreement between the parties, is supposed to head the faction is equal to only about 8% of Torah Judaism voters, the survey examined the power of the central faction (Gore Hasidim) within Agudat Israel, and revealed that the difference between Agudat Israel in its current state and Agudat Israel without the central faction , expressed in a total of 8% of the entire Hasidic public. In the first case, as mentioned, 66.5% of the followers will vote for Torah Judaism, while in the second case only 58.1% will vote for it.
Dodi Dror, CEO of Askaria, concludes: “From this survey and other surveys we are conducting during this period, it is evident that a separate run will indeed bring some of the ultra-Orthodox voters home, but it will certainly cause a loss of seats, because there is no numerical possibility for the Israel Association to pass the blocking percentage of approx. – 150,000 votes”.