2023-04-30 19:11:47
BarcelonaA world with very little – or outright no – work. This is the scenario that Daniel Susskind, economist and professor at King’s College in London, came to present in Barcelona during, precisely, the closing of the first Catalan Labor Congress. What will be the impact of artificial intelligence on the labor market? This British academic continues to ask himself the same question that his father, also a researcher in the field with a Wikipedia entry, was already asking in the 1980s. He warns that virtually no one will escape automation, but insists that, in a future in which work will no longer be at the center, we will not have to suffer for our livelihood either.
Has the emergence of ChatGPT changed some of its theses?
— It is noteworthy, but it does not change the thesis. It’s just another chapter in the story we’ve been telling: that technologies will gradually but relentlessly become more capable. Slowly, they will be introduced to activities that until recently seemed like only humans could do. Making medical diagnoses, driving cars, drafting legal contracts, designing buildings, composing music and writing news.
Will we soon see more layoffs to replace workers with tools like this?
— I don’t think that in the next 10 years we will see a situation in which there is not enough work for humans because of technological progress. I think there will be work, but for various reasons it will be difficult for workers to do it. Either because they don’t have the right skills, because they don’t live where the jobs are being created, or because they cling to a particular identity and are willing not to work to protect it until the right kind of work comes along. The challenge for the next 10 years will be the mismatches. Later we may find that there is not enough work, period.
When talking about automation, there is also reference to the fact that workers will have to be trained to adapt. Who bears this cost?
— There are three parties involved: the individual, the company and the administration. We need to strike a balance in figuring out who bears the burden of training and retraining many of these workers.
But while we figure it out it mostly falls to the workers, doesn’t it?
— Yes, it’s true. The idea that people can simply retrain and retrain themselves to find a new job is easier said than done. This activity is very expensive and time consuming.
“The idea that people can simply retrain and retrain themselves to find a new job is easier said than done”
Is the weight of work in our identity changing after phenomena such as the Great Resignation o he quiet quitting?
— Many looked for an economic explanation in the Great Resignation and it is very clear that the economy could not explain what was really happening. In many parts of the labor market where there were vacancies, wages were rising, but people did not want to work there. Why didn’t they want it? Well, because it wasn’t the kind of job they thought they were trained for. It wasn’t for them. The pandemic and the pause it brought gave people more opportunities to reflect on what they wanted to do with their working lives.
How do you manage to change this mentality in a capitalist society and so oriented to results?
— I don’t think it’s our forte, nor that we have too much experience when it comes to doing it. Our purpose will become more and more important in a world where work is no longer at the center of people’s lives.
As long as there is debate about technology and work, you will surely continue to define yourself by it.
– Yes. It’s very difficult to take the time to reflect on what we really value and that’s what was unique about the pandemic.
Is this world without work compatible with decent living conditions?
— It is only compatible if we manage to solve the economic problem: that for most people work is their main source of income. What alternative mechanisms do we have? It seems to me that the only thing is the state. It will have to play a bigger role in sharing income within society if we cannot rely on the labor market to do it. A world with less work is only compatible with humans thriving if we manage to solve this.
“We need to move from taxing human capital to taxing systems, machines and those who control them”
Where will this income come from? To apply taxes on the machines?
— These technologies make us collectively much more prosperous. But on the other hand, they undermine the traditional ways we have of sharing that prosperity, such as paying people for the work they do. There is a tension between promise and price. As a society we need to move from directly taxing human capital to taxing traditional types of capital such as systems, machines and those who control them. This is the change that needs to happen in the 21st century. There will be prosperity, because these technologies are extraordinarily powerful. The question is: can we share it?
Would universal basic income be a solution in this scenario?
— It’s fascinating because universal basic income is one of those policies where both sides of the political spectrum often come together and agree. The left likes it because it offers a floor below which no one can be. The right tends to like it because it promises radical streamlining of government bureaucracy. It replaces a whole set of different payments and support schemes. Therefore, we often find that universal basic income, although it may not be the case here in Spain, is actually one of those policies that tends to receive a lot of support.
Do you think it would be easily applicable, then?
— I am talking about a conditional basic income. My problem with universal basic income is the universality. Today, social solidarity comes from the feeling that everyone participates through the work they do and the taxes they pay. And if they don’t have a job, they are expected to look for one. Universality counteracts this somewhat because it allows some people to extract from the collective share without paying anything in return. For this reason the need for conditions in the conception of the basic income.
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