The “pre-candidate” of the Workers’ Party (PT, left), former President Lula, chose a unifying slogan for the launch of his movement this weekend: « Let’s go together through Brazil » (“Together for Brazil”). At his side will be the former governor of the state of Sao Paulo Geraldo Alckmin, affiliated for the occasion with the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB, center right), which he chose for the post of vice-president if he l wins in the presidential election next October.
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This Saturday, May 7, the two men will hold their first major meeting in Sao Paulo. Favorite in the polls, Lula will not have the easy part against the outgoing president, Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently rising in the opinion polls.
The two rivals of 2006 make an alliance
Lula and Geraldo Alckmin know each other well and the photo published last month, when their alliance was announced, made an impression: the two men indeed clashed at the polls. Re-elected in 2006 for a second term, Lula then beat his rival in the second round of the presidential election by winning the ballot with 60% of the vote. Sixteen years later, the leader of the PT (left) made an alliance with the traditional right to try to regain power. “Lula knows that he must ally himself with the right and the center to hope to win the elections. A calculated risk because he knows he will not lose his forever voters,” deciphers the political scientist Humberto Dantas.
The candidate from the left is currently the favorite. “Lula is coming back stronger than ever after having lived through hell and prison, he has been cleared by the courts and his charisma remains intact”, analyzes political scientist Eduardo Viveiros de Freitas. In the previous presidential election, in 2018, Lula was unable to compete under the so-called “Ficha Limpa” (“Clean Record”) law: the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) ruled that an official convicted of corruption (in second instance) could not appear.
The gap is closing
But five months before the election, nothing is settled. On April 22, a poll by the Ipespe institute placed Lula in the lead in the first round with 45% of voting intentions, against 31% for Bolsonaro. But at the end of April, another poll conducted by PoderData only gave him a five-point lead: 41% for Lula against 36% for the outgoing president.
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“Bolsonaro enjoys a solid, if not monolithic, electoral base, which can be recognized in his conspiratorial, ultra-liberal and militarized rhetoric, indicates Odilon Caldeira Neto, professor of history at the Federal University of Juiz de Fora and coordinator of the Far Right Observatory. The evangelical vote, decisive in 2018, is certainly no longer his, but it remains an enigma. »
Today, if 60% of those questioned have a negative opinion of the outgoing president, 40% categorically exclude voting for the candidate of the left. However, the rejection of the Workers’ Party had allowed the candidate of the Liberal Party (far right), Jair Bolsonaro, to come to power in 2018 in Brasilia.
Jair Bolsonaro, anything but an “accident of history”
For his part, the outgoing president has not yet announced the name of his running mate. The official electoral campaign will not begin until 45 days before the election, in mid-August, when all the parties will have formalized the names of their candidate. But the current tenant of the Alvorada Palace is already questioning the legitimacy of the electoral process.
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“His repeated attacks on the judiciary, on the Supreme Court or the Superior Electoral Court, are dangerous for democracy”, emphasizes Humberto Dantas. Close to leaders like Viktor Orban, Vladimir Poutine or Donald Trump, Bolsonaro is not “an accident of history”assure l’historien Odilon Caldeira Neto.
A tense social context
This beginning of the campaign takes place in a very degraded social context in Brazil. Despite an official inflation rate of 1.62% in March, the population is facing a sharp increase in food prices: + 23% for soybean oil over twelve months, + 18% for wheat flour .
It is combined with the rise in fuel prices. Lula has already given an idea of the themes on which he will focus his strategy of regaining power, promising in particular “the return of meat to the plates” Brazilians.
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Lula, a political career in ruptures
[1945 Naissance of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, said « Lula ».
Fin 2002. The candidate of the Workers’ Party was elected President of the Republic, then re-elected in 2006.
2011. His chief of staff, Dilma Rousseff, succeeds him.
2017. Accused of having obtained an apartment by the sea from a public works company in exchange for public contracts, he was sentenced to nine and a half years in prison, then to twelve years on appeal.
Avril 2018. Imprisoned for “corruption and money laundering”, he cannot stand for a new mandate. He will be released in November 2019.
2021. Cancellation of his conviction by the Supreme Court, which calls into question the impartiality of the judge who condemned him.