It was to himself rather than to his country that Mahamat Idriss Déby offered a fresh start. Eighteen months after inheriting power after the death of his father, Idriss, killed in what was his most constant activity – the war against rebel groups – the young 38-year-old general was officially invested on Monday 10 October, transitional president of Chad. A simple change of title for the one who until now held the position of President of the Transitional Military Council (CMT), a body whose dissolution is intended to give a more civil appearance to his regime, but which allows him to remain in control well beyond the originally promised period.
At a time when he should have returned power and organized elections, if the commitments of April 2021 had been kept, Mahamat Idriss Déby was entrusted with state orders for an additional twenty-four months and above all granted the right to run for the next election. This denial of the word given to the African Union (AU) and to the Western chancelleries, France in the lead, which had approved, with regard to “special situation” of Chad, the succession of the father by his son outside of any institutional legality, is the main conclusion of the “inclusive and sovereign national dialogue” (DNIS).
Reinforced executive
Chaired by a recognized opponent, Gali Ngothé Gatta, these meetings were preceded by months of discussions in Qatar between the Chadian government and the politico-military movements which are more or less actively fighting it. Opened in August after multiple postponements, they have only served to broaden the prerogatives of the chief executive, who now obtains the right to dismiss the prime minister, and to confirm his apparent desire to retain power. Before withdrawing definitively from the process, the Catholic Church had thus suspended its participation halfway “so as not to condone the control of a group”, evoking his “the impression of attending an electoral campaign, with on the one hand those who support change and a renewal of the political class and on the other those who are blocking everything and want to continue as before, by setting up a skilfully orchestrated machine ».
To this accusation of a dialogue organized to allow Mr. Déby to clear the way until the next presidential election which will be held, he promises, ” in transparency and serenity »one of his close collaborators replied that “Chadians are free to ask anyone they have seen at work to introduce themselves. All the rebels and opponents who were in the room do not dispute his eligibility. Are they so stupid not to be aware of the issues? »
Absent from the dialogue he boycotted, the opponent Success Masra, at the head of the Transformers, considers that Chadians are “at a time of clarification and necessary reorientation. If Mahamat Déby wants to be a candidate, he cannot at the same time lead the transition”. The leader of this party, which brings together a good number of young urbanites, has once again measured the functioning of the repressive machine of the regime – between the 1is and September 9, « 800 [de ses] activists were injured and 300 arrested” – and carefully “greater involvement of the African Union and France, which have dubbed Mr. Déby”.
More radical, the rebel movements that were not signatories to the peace agreement signed in August in Doha, including the Front pour l’alternance et la concorde au Tchad (FACT), which led the fatal offensive against Idriss Déby, announced , as of October 7, reject “the resolutions of the so-called dialogue which only legitimize the dynastic succession and perpetuate the corrupt regime. » They also point out that “those in power and their accomplices and internal and external supporters will bear all the consequences of their deceit”, while, according to them, “Clan Army” in power in Chad is only one “auxiliary to the French operation “Barkhane””.
An ally as strategic as it is cumbersome
For France, Mahamat Idriss Déby is, like his father, an ally as strategic as it is cumbersome. Essential for the French military presence in the Sahel, which is moreover at a time when it is strongly contested in the region, and embarrassing since it is an essential example for all those who denounce the benevolence of Paris with regard to the military and unconstitutional regimes that preserve its interests.
“It’s one more complicated situation for the region”, euphemised a French leader. While the delegation of the European Union and France expressed “their concern” regarding the decisions on the duration of the transition and the ineligibility clause, this source considers that“we must not rush developments that are out of reach for Chad, but [qu’]a renewal of the Déby system is another impasse”.
Absent noticed Monday at the swearing in of Mahamat Idriss Déby: his compatriot and chairman of the AU Commission, Moussa Faki Mahamat, whose institution had insisted before the conclusion of the DNIS on the need to respect the timetable and recalled ” unequivocal ” that no member of the CMT “cannot be a candidate in the elections at the end of the transition”. “He does everything to tackle us. He is playing his part as a pretender to the throne,” creaks a source at the presidency in Ndjamena while this former minister of Idriss Déby would nurture ambitions in his country. “There is no point in wanting to ban the candidacy of Mahamat Idriss Déby. If necessary, the clan can always introduce someone other than themselves, warns someone familiar with the mysteries of Chadian politics. What is needed is that the future election be sufficiently controlled so that the results are not changed. »