Two weeks ago, Emmanuel Macron and Giorgia Meloni spoke with one voice about Tunisia. The country is in “very great political tension”, estimated the French president, when the president of the Italian Council brandished the « risque » of “migration wave objectively unprecedented ». The head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, came to drive the point home, not hesitating to speak of a threat of“instability in the region”.
Sub-Saharan migration first
The memory of 2011 is still present. The fall of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, followed by an unprecedented loosening of security, had precipitated the departures. No question of repeating this scenario for Europeans, while a whole age group in Tunisia sees Europe as its lifeline.
Yet the signs of a mass emigration of Tunisians are not clearly perceptible. Admittedly, the Italian authorities have recorded an increasing number of arrivals of Tunisians on their soil over the past three years (11,212 in 2020, 14,342 in 2021, 18,148 in 2022), but the trend seems to have reversed in 2023. According to the Interior Ministry, only 2,094 Tunisians landed in Italy between January 1 and April 6. Data without comparison with the 25,800 people who arrived in Italy between January and June 2011, in the midst of a revolution.
The situation is different with the arrivals of migrants from sub-Saharan Africa (Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, Cameroon, Mali, Burkina Faso), who form the bulk of the 28,283 people who arrived this quarter on the Italian coasts, and who are clearly no longer welcome to Tunisia. On February 21, Tunisian President Kaïs Saïed had set fire to the powder by denouncing the presence of « hordes » dont l’“criminal enterprise” aimed at “changing the demographic composition” from the country. A speech followed by unbridled violence in the population, police repression and hasty departures, as well as shipwrecks in the direction of Lampedusa or Sicily.
Towards enhanced cooperation
In Tunisia, a new Minister for Foreign Affairs, Migration and Tunisians Abroad, Nabil Ammar, was appointed on 7 February. Prior to that, he was Tunisia’s ambassador to the European Union in Brussels. The profile of this diplomat tends to reassure the Europeans, but, for him, there is no question of selling off the cooperation of Tunis.
“We are on the front line to help Italy manage the flow of migrants. But we need more resources.” he said on April 5 to the Italian daily The Republicemphasizing that his country is “in a difficult period for public finances”.
The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has promised an extension of 110 million euros to stem departures from North Africa, in addition to an initial envelope of 208 million. With regard to macro-financial aid intended to keep the Tunisian economy afloat, Brussels is leaving the door open, on the condition that Tunis accepts the IMF’s 1.7 billion euro plan, itself conditional on a number of reforms perceived as an attack on the country’s sovereignty.
Traveling to Tunis on March 27, the European Commissioner for the Economy, the Italian Paolo Gentiloni, renewed contact, assuring that “Tunisia would not be left alone”.
The rights of migrants in question
NGOs and the UN warn against an EU-Tunisia deal that would hide respect for human rights under the rug. On Tuesday 4 April, the UN Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination issued a warning over reports of numerous arbitrary arrests in Tunisia of sub-Saharan migrants (including children and students) as part of a campaign entitled “Strengthening of the security fabric and reduction of the phenomenon of irregular stay in Tunisia”.