2023-04-30 18:00:51
Some studies point out that the population of Ukrainewill contract 30% in the coming decades, because of the war. And a report recently published by the European Commission has even gone so far as to point out that Ukraine might have lost more than a third of its inhabitants in 2025, accelerating pre-existing demographic phenomena. At the age of 54, the Mallorcan Jaume Nadal Roigdemographer and representative of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) a Ukraine, is cautious about long-term analysis as this is still a very recent and ongoing conflict, but he also has few doubts. «The war is affecting the demography (of Ukraine)”, he says, in an interview with EL PERIÓDICO.
The numbers and reality corroborate this situation. “We are talking about some 14 million people still in a displacement situation, of which 5-6 million are internally displaced» inside the country, says Nadal. “There is also an ever-increasing proportion of the returned population. But the numbers are very fluid”, he warns, when reasoning about trends that also embody an important population movement from the east i el south (especially from areas where the fighting is more intense) towards the west.
Demographic imbalances can be seen, in fact, in what is seen on a day-to-day basis. “As I said, there is no official data, but what we have also been seeing, from an empirical evidence perspective, is that, in many of the areas of the country most affected by the war, the young population has left and those who have remained are substantially older women, especially in rural areas», argues.
Pre-war trend
The starting point, in any case, is that of a country that, already before the warhad a marked inclination of population decline (since the 90s of the last century). “This has to do with some factors. One, the low fertility rate; another, which is a peculiarity of Ukraine, male over-mortalitymainly due to problems with alcohol, tobacco, traffic accidents…», he says.
Even so, according to the expert, the ongoing conflict will accentuate some demographic trends already underway. “From maternity hospitals they tell us that births are quite low to those before the war. In Kharkiv (in the east), we were told that, of the 450,000 women of childbearing age that there were, there are possibly around 80,000 left. This gives the dimension of this process”, affirms the demographer.
Giving birth in war is undoubtedly an experience with serious risks to the health of women and babies, with consequences that can be serious. In Ukraine, “what is calculated is an increase inbetween 7% and 10% of premature births, and there has also been an increase in cases of hypertension during pregnancy, as well as more sepsis and infections”, says Nadal. “Some doctors in Dnipro or Újhorod have also told us aboutan increase in abortions spontaneous”, he points out.
However, according to this analyst with previous experience in missions in countries such as Egypt, Brazil and Bolivia and who today is one of the highest-ranking Spanish UN officials in Ukraine, he points out improvements in protocols of Ukrainian health facilities (910 is the total of those that have suffered attacks, according to the latest UN update). They work “despite the difficulties, they are some heroes and some heroines».
With this, in the east of Ukraine, «if it is necessary, today it is possible give birth in basements skills as shelters. Of course no one should give birth like this but… it’s the solution they have found (in the existing circumstances)”, he says. In the west, on the other hand, the problem is that the centers find themselves having to cope with serving many more people, because now more Ukrainians live in these areas and they need the public service.
Trafficking in human beings
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This is another topic. “Many women who they used to have private insurancethey no longer have it due to economic difficulties and, for this reason, they use the public service, and the public sector plays an even more important role”, remarks Nadal, a member of an organization that has only received 70% of the budget it needs to deal with their programs in the country.
It is not the only concern. There is also the plague of networks that traffic with human beings. “At the beginning of the war, we saw networks operating in Ukraine and outside Ukraine, conducting very active campaigns to recruit displaced women or women who were considering leaving. This presence continues», he argues, pointing out that the risk is that things could get worse. “We are very concerned economic vulnerability of many women’s homes”, he says.
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