It’s a wave of « clarifications » which intrigues, and which worries. In recent weeks, the authorities of several Russian regions have sent summons to their residents to report to their military police stations. The goal, they assure, is to update the data available to the administrations. But at a time when the Russian army is suffering heavy losses in Ukraine, these calls raise fears that Russia will soon launch a second wave of mobilization.
The Kremlin denies, for the moment, considering a new call for reservists in the colors, as it had already done for the first time by summoning nearly 300,000 men in the fall of 2022. «It is a common practicesays Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov, all data must be updated.»
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The intention is partly sincere. The first mobilization decided in September 2022 brought to light major bureaucratic dysfunctions, causing in particular the sending to the flag of many people who should normally have been exempted. To correct this, the Russian government has begun a modernization effort. Objective: to consolidate by April 2024 a unified digital register to facilitate the call-up of reservists. But a device that will undeniably prove useful in the event of a new mobilization.
The reservoir of conscripts
The Russian authorities would however be reluctant to reproduce this first wave of mobilization, which had pushed hundreds of thousands of Russians to flee the country. More likely, believe some observers of the conflict, is the scenario of a mobilization diluted over time. “Everything will be done in a calmer waysays a source in the Duma quoted by the independent information site Viorstka, they will try to recruit as many people as possible as volunteers. »
Several individuals presenting themselves to military police stations for data checks have thus been offered to enlist as volunteers, says Viorstka. Created in the summer of 2022 to support the Russian army, the regional volunteer battalions were an opportunity for competition between local authorities, each seeing it as an opportunity to demonstrate its zeal by sending large contingents. But despite this political hype, “only” 20,000 volunteers joined the fight, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported at the end of 2022. Much less than the 300,000 mobilized in the fall.
Another important reservoir of troops exists: the conscripts. Several hundred thousand young Russians continue to be called up every six months to perform their military service. If they cannot legally be deployed in a combat zone, they have the possibility of signing a contract to serve in the army, and can therefore be sent to the front after a few months.
30,000 new mercenaries
«This pool is already exploited and can be even morenoted sociologist Anna Colin Lebedev on Twitter. Contracts are signed voluntarily, but also under more or less heavy pressure. These contractors are a precious commodity: they are young, more or less trained during the service, without family responsibilities. (…) Recruitment of contract workers is less visible than mobilization and does not make waves. The army also knows better how to manage contractors than mobilized ones. The pressure on conscripts to sign a contract is expected to mount. » The Duma is also working on a bill to “delay” the age group for conscription from 18-27 to 21-30 from 2024. A way to “catch up” with the number of students who escape for the time being from conscription.
There remains the Wagner group. On March 18, Evgueny Prigojine, the boss of this cohort of mercenaries, announced that he hoped to recruit 30,000 new soldiers of fortune by mid-May 2023. A few days earlier, he announced the upcoming opening of recruitment centers in 42 cities of Russia.
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