Russia, the world’s second largest arms exporter after the United States, has long been Southeast Asia’s leading supplier. Since 2000, it has sold 10.7 billion dollars (10.1 billion euros) in arms to the region, more than the United States, the European Union and China. This relationship, however, began to lose momentum in 2014, after the annexation of Crimea by Moscow, and the war in Ukraine is likely to call it into serious question.
In addition to the economic sanctions and export controls imposed on Russia since the start of the conflict on February 24, the difficulties of the Russian army in the Ukrainian theater have tarnished the reputation of the country’s military industry, argues Ian Storey, researcher at the Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore. “Before the war, Russian weapons were considered robust, solid and adequate for Southeast Asian countries, but the images of destroyed Russian military equipment in Ukraine will make these countries reconsider their purchases”notes the specialist in security issues in Southeast Asia.
Russia had until then been the preferred supplier to the region thanks to the price of its military equipment, which was more affordable than that of its Western competitors, its flexibility in terms of payment and the fact that it did not take into account the question of human rights in contracts. But, now, “buying Russian weapons has become a risky bet”maintains Mr. Storey.
Russian defense industry exports to Southeast Asia began to decline in 2014, with the annexation of Crimea and the imposition of Western sanctions. Vietnam, the region’s main importer, also paused its military modernization program at this time. And, in 2017, the US Congress passed a law allowing the government to impose sanctions on countries buying weapons from Moscow, the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act. “). “This is a constraint for Southeast Asian countries. They must now calculate this risk if they want to buy weapons from Russia”argues Carlyle Thayer, professor emeritus at the University of New South Wales, Australia.
Towards more “reliable” sources
As a result, Russia’s arms sales to Southeast Asia have plummeted from $1.2 billion in 2014 to just $109 million in 2021, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. . This fall is expected to continue due to the sanctions imposed on Russia since the invasion in Ukraine, according to Mr. Thayer: “Doing business with Russia has become difficult, the country is now ostracized, even toxic. »
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