“A violation of everything” ; “An openly hostile gesture” ; “Serious consequences” ; “Russia reserves the right to act in defense of its national interests”… The application by Vilnius on June 18 of European sanctions on Russian goods transiting through Lithuania to enter the enclave of Kaliningrad has aroused real fury in Moscow.
And while the Russian army continues, nearly 1,000 kilometers to the south-east, to try to advance into Ukrainian territory, the increased isolation of the “exclave” further increases the tension in this strategic region where coexist with difficulty NATO countries, Russia and Belarus.
An answer “in preparation”
Arriving in Kaliningrad on June 21, Russian Security Council Secretary and Chief Kremlin hawk Nikolai Patrushev assured that an answer was already ” in preparation for “ and would have “serious negative consequences for the population of Lithuania”. For Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean, director of the Russia and New Independent States center at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri), Moscow could thus first target the Baltic countries, through economic retaliation measures but also “going through the Russian-speaking populations of these countries, to try to create social protests”.
Lithuania, for its part, tried to minimize the importance of this development, assuring through its Ministry of Foreign Affairs that “the transit of unsanctioned passengers and goods to and from the Kaliningrad region continues uninterrupted”. The system, negotiated with Russia in preparation for Lithuania’s accession to the EU in 2004, allowed nearly 400,000 Russians to travel between Kaliningrad and the rest of Russia each year, through transit documents issued by Lithuania.
Almost three weeks after the EU voted on the latest sanctions package against Russia, the Lithuanian announcement could come “firstly a question of the implementation deadline, with a gradual entry into force of the sanctions, and also perhaps a consultation process with the European Commission”, says Jan Dunin-Wasowicz, a lawyer specializing in sanctions issues for Hughes Hubbard & Reed.
A very special status
The head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, directly supported Vilnius on June 20, assuring that “Lithuania does nothing but implement the guidelines of the European Commission”.
According to the governor of Kaliningrad, Anton Alikhanov, these goods would nevertheless represent up to 50% of the total trade passing through Lithuania. In the exclave, the announcement of the “blockade” triggered a brief rush to supermarkets and, according to regional media Klops, to DIY and building materials stores – cement being one of the sanctioned products.
Moscow’s tension in the face of the implementation of these sanctions is due to the very special status of this Russian region, isolated from the rest of the country, dependent on energy and food from Moscow and surrounded on all sides by member countries of NATO. An exclave which since the annexation of Crimea by Russia has become a “military stronghold” where “every event likely to cause Russia’s concern is perceived, often in a greatly exaggerated way, as a disguised aggression aimed at marginalizing it”, wrote researcher Sergey Sukhankin in September 2021 in an analysis note published by Ifri, with in particular the deployment of warning radars, “Iskander-M” ballistic missile systems and new regiments.
This, while the West keeps its eyes riveted on the Suwalki corridor, 35 kilometers of lakes, fields and forests between Poland and Lithuania – and wedged between Kaliningrad and Belarus, the only land crossing point between the Baltic countries and the other countries of the North Atlantic Alliance.