2023-06-17 09:07:36
An LR figure at Matignon? “Pure fiction”, replied Eric Ciotti on Wednesday on France info. As rumors of an upcoming reshuffle escalate, the Republican boss has brushed off all nomination LR to the post of Prime Minister. But the possibility of a government agreement between the right and the executive has been agitating the political class for several weeks. According to franceinfo, Renaissance would have even summoned its executives to discuss, on June 21, a possible alliance. The subject also risks hovering over the “states general of the right”, organized by LR this Saturday in Paris. What would be the advantages and disadvantages of such a marriage between the two camps? We take stock.
For the presidential camp
The advantage: finally a majority!
It is the nightmare that has been poisoning the daily life of the macronie for almost a year now. For lack of an absolute majority in the Assembly, the presidential camp is experiencing strong turbulence in the Hemicycle, in particular on the pension reform. The rapprochement with the right would therefore make it possible – ideally – to rally the 62 LR deputies and to afford a clear majority. A very useful strategic movement to pass the difficult texts to come, on immigration or the end of life.
“There are common points between LR and Renaissance”, says regularly Jean-Pierre Raffarinthe former Prime Minister by Nicolas Sarkozy. This is also the opinion ofEdward Philip, which has been pushing for such a rapprochement in recent weeks. “When you don’t have an absolute majority, you have to build one. The debate on pensions shows that a significant mass of elected LRs are part of the central bloc, ”he assured the Figaro. There remains a big question: which personality in Matignon could lead this new majority?
The downside: a loss of influence and a risk of berezina
To convince Eric Ciotti’s party of such a rapprochement, Emmanuel Macron would undoubtedly be forced to appoint a strong personality from the right as Prime Minister. Gerard Larcher, the president of Senate, is one of the names often cited in the press. But giving Matignon to LR would lead to an undeniable loss of influence for the Macronists. “We have to stop giving so much importance to LR. They take advantage of it when ideologically, they are far from being aligned with us, ”sighs a MoDem deputy, recalling that the former LR candidate, Valérie Pécresse, had only won 4.78% in the last presidential election.
Negotiating with the LR feather leaders would also not be a guarantee of then obtaining the votes of the group, as the recent example of pensions has shown. “Ciotti is unable to offer us a majority because he does not hold his troops. The alliance cannot exist because a part of the right quite simply does not want it”, squeaks a Renaissance deputy.
For Republicans
The advantage: influencing government action
Some LR heavyweights, such as Jean-François Copé or Rachida Dati, are pushing for a government agreement with Emmanuel Macron. The recent example on immigration shows that the right is still struggling to influence the choices of the executive. The two bills presented by the LR leaders, with very strict measures, were received more than coldly by the members of the government.
An alliance with the macronie would then make it possible to recover some positions in the government and to weigh much more strongly on the texts to come. The right can “impose a certain number” of its ideas in this “pact”, notably defends the mayor LR of Meaux. The defenders of this strategy, including a certain Nicolas Sarkozy, believe that she can put the right back on the rails of power, which she left for more than ten years now. A not insignificant return to service before fighting the presidential battle of 2027.
The downside: dissolution in macronism
This is the fear of elected LRs: that the right will fade into Macronism once the possible alliance has been ratified. “In the vast majority of the group, it is estimated that Emmanuel Macron has damaged the country on the authority of the State or public finances, blows Eric Pauget, LR deputy for Alpes-Maritimes. Allying with Macron would mean endorsing what has been done so far. It would be to integrate that the Republican right is dead and has no future, ”he adds.
Same observation with the elected Liot Aurélien Pradié: “Macron has a deleterious relationship with the country. If we fade behind it, the only ones who will still embody stable benchmarks will be the extreme right and the extreme left. The alliance would be a deadly poison”. And if this track has been in everyone’s head for several weeks, nothing says that it would make it possible to resolve the current political crisis.
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