In the Maldives, the victory of the pro-Beijing candidate sounds like a defeat for India

2023-10-01 18:10:47

Already facing a diplomatic storm with Canada, the Indian government suffered a new blow on Saturday, September 30, with the victory of Mohamed Muizzu in the Maldivian presidential election. The mayor of Malé, who won against the outgoing president with 54% of the votes, is one of the best relays of Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean archipelago, populated by only half a million inhabitants but occupying a highly strategic position.

In the wake of the election, outgoing President Mohamed Solih admitted his defeat, congratulating the population for their participation “to a democratic and peaceful process”. The winner, for his part, launched a message of appeasement, claiming to want “unite the archipelago” after a vote which increased divisions between the clans.

For Mr. Solih, who only received 39% of the votes in the first round, compared to 46% of the votes obtained by his opponent, the affair was off to a bad start. His break with the head of Parliament, Mohamed Nasheed, the first democratically elected president, had considerably weakened him. The bane of Muslim fundamentalists, victim of an attack in May 2021, Mr. Nasheed criticized the president for his lack of support for the Islamist members of the coalition. He had not hidden, during the campaign, his desire to see his former ally stumble, increasing the attacks against him, including on his private life. The candidate he supported during the campaign, Ilyas Labeeb, won 7% of the vote in the first round. For the second round, he did not call for voting for either of the two candidates in the running.

Historically close to India, the Maldives brought to power in 2013 an outspoken pro-Beijing, Abdulla Yameen, who welcomed a multitude of Chinese investments, accelerating the development of the archipelago, but causing dismay in New Delhi, worried that a Chinese presence could develop near its coasts. In 2018, however, the Maldivians reversed course by electing Mohamed Solih as head of the country, leading to a renegotiation of Chinese debt repayment and the restoration of the so-called “India First” policy. ).

Modi’s congratulations

New Delhi has good reason to be concerned. If Mohamed Muizzu, during his campaign, became the apostle of a balanced relationship between the two Asian giants, he is above all close to Abdulla Yameen, the former president who launched, in 2020, a campaign entitled « India Out » (India out), denouncing a supposed secret military presence of the Indian army – refuted by the authorities. As mayor of Malé, Mohamed Muizzu constantly touted the Chinese investments that have transformed the island capital, including the construction of the Sinamale Bridge, a gigantic 2.1 km bridge linking the city to its airport and its residential suburbs. – at a cost of around 200 million dollars (188 million euros). In September 2022, during an online event organized by the Chinese Communist Party, he emphatically praised the friendly relationship between this party and his own, and promised to strengthen ties with Beijing in the event of a change.

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