While the hypothesis had been raised for a time that Emmanuel Macron would not immediately change his two ministers most in demand for the management of the war in Ukraine, the Head of State decided otherwise, Friday, May 20, for his new government. By deciding to replace Jean-Yves Le Drian at the Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs with ex-ambassador Catherine Colonna, and Florence Parly at the Ministry for the Armed Forces with Sébastien Lecornu, one of his faithful formerly at the head of the Ministry for overseas, the president turns two pages at the same time: that of ministers in office since his arrival in 2017, but also that of the end of a strategic cycle theorized for a long time by experts and that the Ukrainian conflict buried with him .
The renewal of the faces at the head of these key portfolios is not very risky from an operational point of view. These two ministries have solid administrations capable of ensuring a transition phase without risk. The Ukrainian file, like many others for which the Quai d’Orsay and the Hôtel de Brienne have co-management, is also very largely piloted with the Elysée. Finally, France is very little involved militarily in the conflict. Only conventional troops are deployed as part of NATO’s defensive posture: 350 French soldiers in Estonia and 500 others in Romania.
The war in Ukraine monopolizes diplomacy more than the armies, which are still very involved in the Sahel, with around 4,600 men still deployed and the disengagement of Mali to manage. But since its outbreak on February 24, the conflict between Moscow and kyiv has reshuffled many cards, upset priorities, while adding a good dose of uncertainty. Mme Colonna and Mr. Lecornu will therefore have to quickly assume their functions.
The Sahel in the background
The file that is today most affected by the war is that of European defense as the Head of State had imagined it before this crisis. That is to say a relatively autonomous defence, decorrelated from NATO. Security fears should contribute to strengthening European defense budgets. But the re-engagement of the United States on the Old Continent, through the new impetus of NATO, requires as much a reinforcement of manpower (about 100,000 soldiers) as a diplomatic and financial reinvestment. In particular via a mechanism of subsidies to the countries delivering weapons to Ukraine, allowing them then to buy American equipment.
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