2023-10-18 14:31:09
Fall real estate weather in the South? A flood of calls for help on social networks: “Urgent: student looking for studio or shared accommodation in Aix-en-Provence. » Mecca of tourism, the Provençal city (147,000 inhabitants including 30,000 students) did not wait for the crazy rise in interest rates to become “one of the most tense areas in France in terms of housing, particularly for students, and this has gotten even worse this year”assures Lyes Belhadj, president of the Student Union union.
A finding confirmed by the National Real Estate Federation (Fnaim) Aix-Marseille-Provence (AMP), where the president, François-Xavier Guis, also at the head of several real estate agencies, describes a very particular market: “Aix buyers have strong purchasing power. And very few properties are for sale. As a result, prices continue to increase, up to €6,500 per square meter! »
Students must move away
At this level, many lessors seek the most profitable rentals: “Here, it’s easier to find an Airbnb for the Rugby World Cup than student accommodation, tacle Lyes Come in. Many students have to move away to Vitrolles, Salon-de-Provence or Cavaillon. After several months, one of our comrades found an 18 m2 apartment in poor condition, at €800 per month! »
Lyes Belhadj chose to settle around twenty kilometers from his university, in a pleasant T2 at €600 per month: “A solution reserved for those who have a car”, he nuances. Even with a liter of gasoline at €2, the formula remains economically winning. Ecologically, it is more questionable.
The risk of a massive postponement of short-term rentals
Burning gasoline for housing, a funny paradox, while ecology is precisely the reason for the plan to fight against “thermal strainers”, these energy-intensive accommodations which will be prohibited for rental if they are not renovated according to the rules. A virtuous policy but criticized for its complexity and its holes in the racket, starting with properties rented on platforms such as Airbnb, which are not affected by this fight plan!
“We fear that owners who cannot – or do not want to – carry out these thermal renovations will put their properties on short-term rental platforms, which escape controls, warns François-Xavier Guis. Energy-intensive accommodation has no impact on a tenant who stays two nights. »
On the other hand, a massive shift to short-term rentals would further aggravate the lack of rental offers, especially in tourist areas. In Marseille, in fact, seasonal rentals have been increasing sharply over the past year (12,000, compared to 9,600 in 2022, according to the town hall), contributing to tensions on the market.
Promoters not spared
The housing crisis has not spared developers: “Today, it is frowned upon to build, assures Arnaud Bastide, president of the Foundation of Real Estate Developers (FPI) of Provence. However, everyone is happy to move to a building with the latest standards. But when it comes to building for others, many suddenly become anti-concreting. However, it all depends on how you build. »
The surge in interest rates (“which caused buyers to lose up to 25% of purchasing power”) and the consequences of the Russian war in Ukraine (“which have caused the price of energy and materials, and therefore construction, to explode”) add to the tension on the new.
Even in these attractive southern lands, the fall is historic: “For three years the figures have been catastrophic, with drops of 15% to 30% in reservations for properties put up for sale, explains the president of FPI-Provence. This crisis is unique in its scale. All signals are red. We have nothing to offer to customers who are not very creditworthy anyway. »
Real estate agents in turmoil
The impasse also threatens real estate agents. “Concretely, our core market is a couple who earn €5,000 together, which is still not nothing. However, in current conditions, he no longer has the means to buy a T3 for €250,000, unless he has at least €50,000 down.”assures François-Xavier Guis.
“Our job is to house people. However, seen from Marseille and Aix, those who until now had a first-time buyer profile are now excluded from accessing property. They must remain in the rental stock,” notes the regional president of Fnaim. With such a drop in activity, will some agencies have to lower the curtain? “Those who only have transactions to live are threatened, he emphasizes. Those who also act as trustees and rental management will be less affected. »
Strong tensions on social housing
What about social housing and the most vulnerable homes in this grim picture? “If we compare to the rest of France, we see that we are starting from an already tense situation, analyzes Robin Hamadi, director of the Regional HLM Association (AR HLM) Paca-Corsica. The production of social housing is well below needs, and rising construction costs are making the situation even worse. » The director even saw some operations canceled.
“The number of applicants for social housing increased by 10% between January and today, to 220,000. I have never seen that in thirty years in social housing! » In his eyes, this is directly correlated to the rise in interest rates: “For lack of resources, people stay in their apartments. As a result, the turnover rate collapsed, falling from 7 to 5% in the most tense sectors. »
Social worker blues
On the ground, social workers are already observing the effects of the crisis: “Requests for domiciliation are increasing, day centers are overwhelmed, with more women and very young children, underlines Francis Vernède, director of the regional agency of the Abbé-Pierre Foundation. In Marseille, we are tired of waiting for the Marshall housing plan. “Marseille on a grand scale” (1) could have been the opportunity to really launch it. On the production of housing, we are not there at all. However, even in a purely liberal logic, we must invest massively in housing, particularly social housing. Well-housed employees are productive. »
——-
New real estate loans at their lowest since 2016
After months above 20 billion euros due to the post-Covid catch-up and the desire to take advantage of still attractive interest rates, the production of new home loans excluding renegotiation increased to the month of August below 10 billion euros, a first in more than seven years, announced the Bank of France.
The average interest rate has increased three and a half times in the space of eighteen months : it is expected in September at 3.81% excluding fees and insurance for new loans, excluding renegotiations. This is explained by the policy of central banks to counter inflation, which increases the cost of money for banks, the latter passing it on to their customers to maintain their margins.
#SouthEast #great #real #estate #flu