Last year was marked by a boom in consumer and housing lending. So, according to the Bank of Russia, in the Middle Urals, the volume of loans issued to individuals increased by 16 percent, mortgages – by 21. Will this trend continue in 2022, RG experts answered.
The statistics provided by the Central Bank is the average for the region. Large federal banks have more impressive figures. For example, Sberbank issued in 2021 one and a half times more consumer loans in terms of number and 38 percent in terms of amount. This was facilitated by the reduction of the weighted average rate. In addition, many customers have begun to actively make purchases that were postponed at the beginning of the pandemic.
Of the 170 billion rubles employed by 67,000 Sverdlovsk residents in banks to buy housing in 2021, 46 billion went through preferential programs. It was they, as well as the record low mortgage rate (5.4 percent for the primary and 8 percent for the secondary in June 2021) that contributed to the increase in the regional portfolio to 360 billion.
The second trend was the growth of remote contactless services in lending. For example, Sberbank’s share reached 80 percent, while in pre-pandemic 2019 it was only 57. It was the digital office that helped UBRD to increase its mortgage portfolio by 78 percent in January 2022, although the entire market did not grow like that. In SKB-Bank, the volume of remote sales of consumer loans in 2021 exceeded sales in offices and offline.
– Consumer behavior has changed in relation not only to financial services, but also to any retail goods. People who used to go to stores are increasingly mastering online services, delivery services, and marketplaces. This is pushing us to change the business model, – Alexey Lutsenko, member of the board, director of retail business development at SKB-bank, comments on the situation.
Despite the fact that the pandemic imposed restrictions on various types of economic activity, the share of overdue payments at large Sverdlovsk enterprises did not change at the end of the year – 1.6 percent. Small business even decreased by 0.7 percent – up to 3.2. Citizens have a similar dynamics: minus 0.5 percent, total 7. The minimum “bad debt” is fixed for mortgages – only 0.5 percent, a decrease by 0.3 per year.
An increase in rates is inevitable due to the fact that the cost of attracting money into the economy has increased
– The crisis in the financial market, which many “prophets from the economy” spoke about at the beginning of the pandemic, did not happen. Enterprises and citizens fulfilled their obligations, because in 2021 most industries continued to work. The external situation also helped: prices for gas and metals rose, large-scale industry received additional cash flow. Unfortunately, it was not possible to keep inflation under control, which caused an increase in the key rate and rates on banking products in the fourth quarter, says Evgeny Bolotin, Deputy Chairman of the Ural Banking Union.
According to his forecast, in 2022, deposits will again become of interest to the population, they will start saving, not spending. This will force entrepreneurs to change their approach, in particular, adjust plans to increase prices. Lending growth is likely to slow down, because the consumer loan rate has already exceeded the psychological threshold of 10 percent, but there will not be a sharp reduction in volume.
According to Alexey Lutsenko, the increase in rates is inevitable due to the fact that the cost of attracting money to the economy has increased. The entire banking system has fallen into the zone of interest rate risk, when rates on deposits are growing faster than on loans. This reduces margins and pushes to rethink operating models and focus on priority areas. Which ones?
– Mortgages will grow faster than other types of loans for individuals – an average of 10-15 percent per year. We are already seeing some slowdown, but in general, the demand for housing loans will continue, as there are benefits for families with children and other categories of borrowers, – says Rustem Mardanov, head of the Ural State Bank of Russia.
Also, the prerequisites for the growth of lending in 2022 will be created by a separate mortgage program for individual housing construction, which is currently being developed at the federal level. Limits on rural mortgages were exhausted very quickly, and the demand for loans for the construction of cottages and private houses is high. In order for the program to start, projects need to be standardized and a number of land valuation issues need to be resolved. So far, borrowers are forced to take ordinary consumer loans for these purposes.