► How did the war in Ukraine and the rise in oil prices change relations between Venezuela and the West?
Nicolas Maduro said to himself “totally ready” to normalize relations with the United States, in an interview broadcast on Sunday 1 January. Ned Price, spokesperson for American diplomacy, tempered his hopes on Tuesday January 3, recalling that his administration still does not consider him a “legitimate ruler” from Venezuela. But the United States must come to terms with the populist leader.
Since the end of November, the oil embargo against Venezuela has been eased: the oil company Chevron is once again authorized to extract oil there. This is a consequence of the war in Ukraine, which forces Westerners to do without Russian oil. Venezuela’s oil reserves – which had to cut its production by three after the imposition of US sanctions – could help relieve pressure on world oil prices.
► Have Westerners lost their bet vis-à-vis Nicolas Maduro’s regime?
The gradual return to grace of Nicolas Maduro’s regime is also a matter of geopolitical calculation. “The aggressive strategy adopted by the United States with regard to Venezuela has been a failure”, notes Thomas Posado, associate researcher at the Center for Sociological and Political Research in Paris (Cresppa). If the current situation penalizes Caracas, the West does not gain either: the ostracization of Venezuela has pushed it into the arms of Russia and Iran, believes the researcher.
In the wake of the United States, European relations with Venezuela are also warming up. The courtesies of Emmanuel Macron, ostensibly calling Nicolas Maduro “president”, on the sidelines of COP27 in early November, in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, when France does not officially recognize his government, reflect this paradigm shift.
► Nicolas Maduro’s regime also faced hostility from its South American neighbors. What has changed in their relations with Venezuela?
“The other geopolitical event that allows Maduro to break his isolation is the coming to power of the left in a number of South American countries,” explains Thomas Posado. With the return of Lula to the head of Brazil and the election of Gustavo Petro in Colombia, the regional environment has become much less unfavorable to Nicolas Maduro than in the time of Jair Bolsonaro and Ivan Duque. A strong symbol, Venezuela’s borders with Colombia completely reopened on Sunday 1is January.
In addition, the Lima group, created in 2017 by countries on the American continent hostile to the regime of Nicolas Maduro, is at a standstill: “All the main leaders of the Lima Group have been defeated at the polls”, states Thomas Posado.
► Why did the opposition’s efforts, despite its international support, fail?
Friday, December 30, the Venezuelan opposition announced the end of the “interim government” led by Juan Guaido. Three of the four main opposition parties said in a joint statement that the body had “ceased to be useful”. Without effective power in the country, this “interim government” nevertheless managed Venezuela’s assets abroad.
In the eyes of the international community too, support for the opposition government had become a « impasse », says Thomas Posado. According to the researcher, interim governance “accumulated pans and failures”. Within the opposition itself, “some considered that his rough management was doing Nicolas Maduro a favor”.