2023-08-21 10:36:29
Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa at a campaign rally in Shurugwi on August 19, 2023. ZINYANGE AUNTONY / AFP
A banner of President Emmerson Mnangagwa, 80, is displayed on a dilapidated building near Harare, calling for him to be given a new mandate: plunged into an economic crisis from which they cannot see the end, Zimbabweans vote Wednesday August 23 in a tense political climate. Below, along an unpaved road, street vendors offer their heating charcoal, piled in empty paint cans for a dollar each.
While the towns are more opposition friendly and most rural controlled by the ruling Zanu-PF since independence, Mbare, the oldest township adjoining the capital, is a battleground for national elections. “The roads are not good, the schools are not good, our economy is not good, we are waiting for all this to change”told AFP Tendai Kativhu, a carpenter who came to the market with his two children.
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Few say it openly, but the change here that many are waiting for is called Nelson Chamisa, leader of the opposition whose portrait is painted on small yellow posters plastered everywhere. But after a campaign marked by banned opposition rallies and arrests, in a country already plagued by a long history of flawed elections, few believe the lawyer and 45-year-old pastor will emerge victorious from the ballot.
Human Rights Watch predicted a “seriously flawed electoral process” inconsistent with a free or fair vote. The Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) of Mr. Chamisa, the « Triple C » as the street says, complains of being mistreated by the authorities: intimidation, obstructed events and invisibility on public television. And serious irregularities have been noted on the electoral lists, which raise fears of a ballot played in advance.
The economy has not taken off
Yet the opposition hopes to surf on a discontent so powerful that it will result in a strong turnout, or even a victory. “People are struggling, maybe after the elections things will be better”, prays Tawanda Gwanzura, a 28-year-old cook. A gifted orator, Mr Chamisa narrowly lost to Mr Mnangagwa in 2018, a loss he contested. The army fired on demonstrators two days after the election, killing six.
During this first vote after the long authoritarian reign of Robert Mugabe, a strong hope of freedom breathed, quickly fell. The situation has since deteriorated, with parliament passing laws that rights groups say muzzle civil society and limit any criticism of the government.
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The economy has not taken off, despite Mr Mnangagwa saying Zimbabwe “open for business” after years of mismanagement, which scared away investors. Economy and unemployment are the main concerns of voters, according to a recent poll also showing that an overwhelming majority disapproves of the government’s action. Inflation in the mineral-rich agricultural country of more than 15 million people was 101% in July, according to official figures, with some economists putting the real figure much higher.
For Zimbabwean political scientist Brian Kagoro, if the campaign hadn’t been so biased against the opposition, it was “the most winnable election” for her for fifteen years. Mr. Chamisa promises to build a new Zimbabwe ” for everyone ” : tackling corruption, reviving the economy, without really detailing how, underline its detractors.
For his supporters, the president keeps his promises
To restore his image, the outgoing president has cut a multitude of ribbons in recent weeks, delivering new fire trucks, inaugurating coal mines, power plants and clinics. “The economy is built by the people”, reads Zanu-PF posters in Harare. For his supporters, the new infrastructure is proof that the president is keeping his promises. “We need jobs and, with President Mnangagwa, we will have jobs”says Faustina Nyamhandu, 22, unemployed.
The president is elected by absolute majority. If no candidate wins 50% of the votes plus one, a second round is organised. Mr. Mnangagwa could be heckled within his own party if he achieves a disappointing result that is hard to portray as a “convincing victory”says Nic Cheeseman, a democracy expert at the University of Birmingham.
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“The big question for the opposition will be whether they will take the risk of demonstrating”, he says. And “for the government to know how far it will suppress this resistance”. In a meeting in the center of the country on Saturday, Mr. Mnangagwa promised fair and violence-free elections. “Zanu-PF is unstoppable. Victory is certain”did he declare.
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