2024-08-06 06:36:25
In an interview with MAP, geopolitics and international relations expert Marcus Vinicius de Freitas highlights the unprecedented circumstances in which this investiture takes place, which stems from the most polarized elections in the history of the leading Latin American power.
For Mr. Vinicius de Freitas, Senior Fellow at the think tank Policy Center for the New South (PCNS), the next government will have to face a complex situation, not to say hostile, knowing that Parliament will not necessarily be won over to the government, not to mention almost half of the electorate who voted for the outgoing president, Jair Bolsonaro (right).
The visiting professor at China Foreign Affairs University believes that the return to power will also mark changes – albeit more moderate than in other left-wing countries in the region – at the national and international levels.
1: Brazil is preparing to officially inaugurate its president-elect amid unprecedented political polarization. What are the main challenges facing the next government?
Vinicius de Freitas: The president-elect will assume the leadership of the state and government at a very polarized time in the country. (Jair) Bolsonaro has created an aura of illegitimacy in the Brazilian electoral process, while discrediting the judges of the Federal Supreme Court and judging their decisions in favor of the president-elect, given that most of them had been appointed under the previous mandates of Lula and Dilma (Roussef, also of the Workers’ Party).
Moreover, the ministerial team appointed by the president-elect includes names who were previously in power and were criticized for their troubles with the law. There is therefore an atmosphere of revanchism, which leaves Lula facing the major challenge of uniting Brazilians.
Lula will probably be able to control Congress, although it is largely right-wing and center-leaning, in a chess game that will mix political interests and agreements with the judiciary.
In the midst of all this, Brazil is experiencing a difficult democratic exercise that is testing the principle of separation of powers, control of the Executive and the balances between the different actors.
Lula’s image at the national level will also be a major challenge for the next government. If at the international level Lula enjoys a fairly positive reputation since he is seen as a protector of the Amazon and a promoter of dialogue and cooperation with the countries of the South, at the domestic level the next president will find himself in constant confrontation with various social organizations whose discontent, it seems, will continue beyond next Sunday.
The other complex challenge is economic. The world is experiencing high inflation, the main Western economies are facing problems with high energy costs and China, the main engine of the Brazilian economy, is facing internal problems that are slowing its growth.
In short, Lula will have to provide answers that are urgently needed: a polarized political scene, in Congress and within society; a difficult global economic situation due to recession, inflation and energy costs; and the impossibility of continuing the expansion of the domestic market in the face of externalities that affect buyers of Brazilian products.
All this could generate instability within the government, which will last the first two years of its mandate.
2. Given the current national and international situation that you have mentioned, do you think that the president-elect will be able to implement the ambitious commitments he made during the electoral campaign?
Vinicius de Freitas: Lula should return to environmental policy, as a way to distinguish himself from the current president. In other areas, Lula could resume the demand for a permanent seat for Brazil on the United Nations Security Council.
It is likely that it will adopt the resumption of a discourse of greater integration of the countries of the South, but it will have to face the resistance that will undoubtedly occur in the coming years and the political change on the South American continent. In recent years, due to the pandemic, there has been a change in the political configuration of the region, with a rising left, but, as the elected governments have not obtained positive and overwhelming results, there is a possibility of change in several governments.
Lula certainly has ambitions for Brazil to assume a greater global role, but this will depend on national circumstances that may deprive it of opportunities for greater global influence.
3. The fight against climate change was a major issue for Brazil in its relations with the international community. Do you think that Lula’s return to power could change the situation?
Vinicius de Freitas: Historically, Brazil has been a country that operates below its possibilities and expectations. Described as a country that is not very active diplomatically, Brazil must find guidelines in which it promotes a clear message to the world. Brazil’s membership in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) gives the country greater international projection, which distinguishes it from other emerging countries.
Since Rio-92 (United Nations Conference on Environment and Development), Brazil has distinguished itself in environmental matters. The country, which has a clean energy matrix, also has the largest forest in the world and one of the largest ecological parks in the world, with an enormous diversity of flora and fauna, which remains unexplored. It is on the issue of climate change and the preservation of biodiversity that Brazil can contribute most intensely to the global dialogue.
Brazil is also relevant in the relationship with Africa. Brazil is the largest African country outside the African continent, with historical ties that should foster a deeper and more fruitful relationship, not only politically, but especially through deeper ties economically.
4. Most South American countries are now governed by the left. What impact will this have on regional integration and international relations?
Vinicius de Freitas: This is not the first time that the left has dominated the political scene in Latin America. Already in the past, there was a wave (of the left), which governed in the region. The narrow results of the elections, the issue of corruption and the enormous administrative failures in some countries, nevertheless led to alternations with the right. It must be said that hazards such as the covid-19 pandemic have favored a new wave of the left that has taken over the governments of the countries of the region.
However, what is happening in Peru, for example, suggests a possible turnaround in the region. For this reason, it is important to observe the political evolution of the region in the coming months to see if the reversal of this leftist wave is a plausible trend.
The left-wing governments of the region have tried to promote a process of economic and political rapprochement, but without success. Entities such as UNASUR (Union of South American Nations), proclaimed and announced to the four winds during the first Pink Wave, have not made great advances, due to the lack of an institutional format that would guarantee greater effectiveness.
2024-08-06 06:36:25