Joe Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia ended with a sweet and sour taste. The US president has reached the Arabian Peninsula with the stated goal of increasing the oil production of Saudi Arabia mainly and of the entire Gulf, in order to lower oil prices. To this end, he met in person with Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman – a meeting that led to Bin Salman’s partial response to an increase in output from 10.5 to 13 million barrels per day.
Saudi Arabia can produce much more but even so it is a handsome increase. But the real test will be at the OPEC oil exporters’ meeting in the coming weeks, where Saudi Arabia is set to try to persuade other companies to increase productivity as well. That the Gulf states did right during the meeting with Biden.
First, in the sectoral regional alliance in question against Iran. Some of the top speakers in the Gulf states have publicly rejected the idea. Anwar Gargash, a senior adviser to UAE President Muhammad bin Zayed, said in part that “the idea of a counter-attitude towards Iran is not something we are in favor of.”
On the issue of Iran, Biden has not issued to Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states and even Israel a significant statement of a real military threat against Iran to prevent the bombing. This can be seen from Iran’s boastful statements in recent days regarding progress on the issue and the actual proximity to building a bomb. The Gulf states, for their part, are heating up relations with Tehran precisely because of American policy toward it, and attempts to bring it back into the nuclear deal. The Emirates – the state of the first Abrahamic agreements – is in the process of returning an ambassador to Tehran and receiving an Iranian ambassador, while Saudi Arabia continues talks to strengthen the ceasefire in Yemen and more.
And there is also the Russian issue: the Gulf states are not really joining the economic sanctions on Moscow following the invasion of Ukraine. In fact, they help her get around it directly and indirectly. For example, Abu Dhabi has abstained from voting at the UN against Russia, and in recent months Russia’s trade agreements with Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Qatar have been expanded.
In addition, it was reported in Reuters this week that under a recently signed agreement, India will pay Russia for oil and gas in the Emirate Dirham currency. Russia can use this currency in trade with the Gulf states, with China, and with many other countries in Asia. Thus, the American ban on trade with Russia in the dollar, which has hitherto been almost the only international currency, was circumvented. The boycotted Russian capital market in the Western world needs friendly banking systems to keep going and contains many billions of dollars looking for a home. The UAE has a clear advantage due to the presence of a sophisticated banking system, particularly lenient regulation and low taxation.
Business people who stood out for their presence in Abu Dhabi and especially in Dubai, are now much more prominent. Including private jets, luxury yachts that came to the bay for fear of being confiscated in the west.
Bottom line: The Gulfs play all the cards, as the Biden administration in particular and America in general do not provide the expected collateral.
Israeli economic activity in the Gulf
And what does all this say about Israel? First, the United States may not be the best mediator in warming relations with Saudi Arabia. This warming continues (despite the authentic and intense anger over Gil Tamari’s article on a visit to Mecca). Welcome them and there are quite a few deals on the way.
One important restriction that has been removed in recent months has been the ban on direct transactions with Israeli companies. These used to need to register companies in third-party countries, and now this issue has become redundant. One major deal in the cellular field is close to being signed, and in the meantime an advanced agricultural breeding farm run by Israeli companies is directly supervised by the Regent’s Office.
Even with the Emirates, economic ties are expanding: according to the Ministry of Economy, the volume of trade between the countries in the first half of the year reached $ 1.2 billion, more than double a year earlier.
One area that is experiencing difficulties is cyber. Here, due to the NSO affair, the Americans are making it very difficult for Israeli companies in general. The issue of the U.S. embargo on NSO and restrictions on other companies has come up in Biden’s visit, and there is progress that may lead to relief soon. A senior figure in the Israeli cyber industry tells Globes that “the Americans are using the NSO affair to help American companies competing with Israelis in the field.”
Israel folded, funding for the Palestinians was transferred
This week, the Foreign Ministry published an “achievement” of renewing the association talks with the European Union – talks that have not taken place for a decade, mainly due to political disagreements with Israel. This is a conference of the so-called “Association Council” – the senior political body in charge of promoting all relations between Israel and the European Union, including at the political, economic and technological level, which takes place with several non-EU countries.
Prime Minister Yair Lapid greeted, but there is no progress without price. In Globes, we revealed that in talks between senior EU officials and Minister Issawi Farage in Brussels, it was made clear to him that the association talks would not be renewed if Israel persisted in its opposition and prevented the transfer of funds to the Palestinian education system. During the EU Foreign Minister’s visit to Israel and the PA last month, she announced that this budget had been thawed and transferred to the Palestinians soon. Lapid admitted that this was a bitter pill that we had to swallow, but added that Israel would continue its dialogue with the Europeans in criticizing and protesting Palestinian education for terrorism.
Naval border tangle with Lebanon
Negotiations between Israel and Lebanon on the maritime border continue to be conducted under a shroud of fog. An agreement on the maritime border will lead to the development of gas fields in Lebanon’s economic waters, and to a considerable income for a country suffering from a huge economic crisis.
The situation, according to sources in Lebanon, the United States and Israel, is that the position presented by Lebanese President Michel Aoun to American mediator Amos Hochstein received a response from the Israeli side. “, In exchange for an agreement that will result in Lebanon receiving most of the profits from gas production in the eastern field beyond the maritime border and located in the territory of the two countries.
Hezbollah, which is furious at being left out of the picture, made sure to bring its resentment by sending UAVs, which were shot down by the IDF, in the direction of a shark rig. A security source told Globes that “as long as the negotiations continue, Hezbollah is expected to step up its efforts to influence it by sending more UAVs and possibly even an attack.”
Either way, France has already announced that its energy company Total will invest in drilling in Lebanese territory. According to the French Ambassador to Lebanon, Ann Grio, this will only happen after setting an agreed border line. According to her, the company will not enter an area of dispute or conflict and the condition for its entry is security and political stability.