Industry, recovery of pre-Covid levels: growth of 18.5% in the first 8 months
Positive signals from the Italian manufacture which is preparing to recover pre Covid levels, if not exceed them, by the end of 2021. According to what emerges from the Report Analysis of the industrial sectors carried out by Intesa Sanpaolo with Prometeia the industry scores better numbers than the European framework. In detail, in the first eight months of the year the industrial production index scored one growth of 18.5% in trend terms, performance “which allows the Italian industry to narrow the gap to 2% compared to the pre-Covid situation, a much lower delay than that which characterizes the German manufacturing down by 7.3%, French down by 6.9% and Spanish down by 3.5%.
In addition, “one is expected for the next few months.” final phase of the year still marked by the recovery of activity levels, as implicit in the trend of the confidence indices, but at a pace that will fade, especially in trend terms, in comparison with a second half of 2020 which had already been a brilliant recovery “. Overall, therefore, for 2021 it is estimated “an 11.2% increase in turnover at constant prices, which will close the gap on pre-Covid (+ 0.8% on 2019), and 20.6% at current prices, up 9% on 2019.
The trend positivo it will then continue in the next few years, with manufacturing activity vista “along a path of rapid development in the two-year period 2022-2023 at an average annual growth rate of 4.2% at constant prices, which at the end of 2023 will push turnover deflated to + 9.4% compared to pre-Covid “.
Looking at the individual sectors, underlines the report, by the end of 2021 ten out of 15 will have completed the recovery of pre-Covid levels, starting from those belonging to the home system, which lead the Ranking: construction products and materials (+ 12.7% average in 2021 compared to 2019), household appliances (+ 7.6%) and furniture (+ 6.5%). The sectors producing intermediate goods also performed well, like other intermediates (+ 3.4%), chemical intermediates (+ 2.9%), metal products (+ 1.6%) and metallurgy (+ 0.5%), driven by the recovery of automotive and mechanics, as well as from buildings.
the forecasts are also favorable for electrical engineering (+ 3%), “which is benefiting from the liveliness of the investment cycle, especially those in a green key”, for food and beverages (+2,3%) e pharmaceutical (+ 0.9%), “which despite having slowed down in the rate of growth trend, compared with a brilliant 2020, will position themselves at the end of the year above the pre-crisis levels of turnover”.
Instead, it will remain “a moderate gap on 2019 activity levels per electronics (-1.2%) and the long consumption (-2%), as well as for i sectors producing capital goods, mechanics (-1,5%) e motor vehicles e motorcycle (-1,8%). The fashion system closes the ranking, where the gap on pre-Covid levels will remain wide at the end of 2021 (-8.9%).