[]
He National Consumer Price Index (INPC) accelerated for the fifth consecutive month in July, reaching 5.57% due to pressures on the prices of fresh food and the energy.
Inflation reported an increase of 1.05% compared to June, while the underlying index increased 0.32% at monthly rate and 4.05% annual. The index Non-core price action recorded an increase of 3.29% monthly and 10.36% annually.
The variation in merchandise continued to decline; that of services rose slightly, education y dwelling.
To Bx+, Inflation will slow down towards the end of the year, “but the outlook is still uncertain and upward risks have recently worsened,” he estimated. Alejandro Saldaña, chief economist of the bank.
“We continue to expect that lower economic growth forecast for the second half of the year will contribute to a further moderation of the prices”.
He explained that, however, incorporating the rebound that the variable has experienced in the year and the latency of upward risks, we decided to raise our forecast for the end of the year to 4.90% due to the volatility of the exchange rate, pressure on imported goods and new shocks in the non-core (energy and agricultural products) in an environment of geopolitical tensions and adverse climatic events, and that the accumulation of shocks leads to second-order effects.
Gabriela Siller, director of the Tec de Monterrey Business School, eHe explained that the price of fruits and vegetables has increased for worrying reasons such as public insecurity, which creates uncertainty and increases costs for farmers.
He explained that another factor that puts pressure on the agri-food sector is the yellow dragon bacteria, which threatens to expand and reduce the supply of citrus fruits globally and the possible sanctions that the government of USA, just as it happened with avocado during the month of June.
He commented that at a monthly rate, The fruits and vegetables with the greatest price increases were tomatoes (+33.34%), onions (+25.08%) and zucchini, which increased 22.76%.
On the other hand, the livestock products with the highest price increases in July were pork (+4.77%), eggs (+3.67%) and beef viscera (+1.98%).
Regarding energy, it is noteworthy that all generics showed increases in their prices during July, such as domestic LP gas (+6.70%), electricity (+2.10%), domestic natural gas (+1.80%) and gasoline. Magna which increased (+1.14%).
In the meantime Ramsé Gutiérrez, a financial analyst at Franklin Templeton, believes that the inflation trend has changed, and there are two major differences compared to the last two inflationary waves.
One, he said, is the absence of external shocks such as the global recovery from the pandemic or the war in Ukraine. And two, underlying inflation (the increase in prices of more stable goods and services) is showing a different trend, as it converges to 4%.
He added that if the weakness of the labor market in the United States is confirmed, the Fed will also begin to lower rates.
“However, recent volatility events triggered by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could also be an indication of the volatility to come”.
He also anticipated that for the second half of the year, Mexico will be seeing constitutional reforms, the definition of the 2025 budget and the elections of our largest trading partner, USA.
Related
2024-08-14 09:25:52