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The arrival of the rains helped to improve the production of fresh food in the country, which meant a respite from inflation, the official said. Agricultural Markets Consulting Group (GCMA), but it is still projected that it cannot fall less than 4.5% at a monthly rate by the end of the year.
This is after six months of pressure on prices, year-on-year inflation slowed down to fall below 5.57% a 4.99%.
A bank financial analysis Bx+ He estimated that the slowdown in consumer prices may be favored by the low economic growth, But that will be interrupted by a strong exchange rate depreciation and the latency of other important risks in the mercado.
“While the above would hardly justify that Banxico employ consecutive cuts in the target rate, most of the Governing Board has given signs of being more permissive towards inflationary risk,” said Alejandro Saldaña, director of economic analysis at the financial institution.
He pointed out that there are still risks that could cause inflation to take longer than expected to clearly subside and not approach the Bank of Mexico’s goal of converging to 3% neither this year nor next.
Bx+ forecast that the main risks to inflation going forward are exchange rate volatility and wage pressures accumulated which are squeezing the cost of services, in addition to new economic shocks due to geopolitical tensions and the possibility of climatic events.
But within this panorama, he recalled that there is a possibility that the Reserva FeUS central bank to begin a cycle of interest rate cuts with a “super cut” of 50 basis points.
While the area of economic analysis of Citibanamex He agreed that the factor for the decline in inflation has to do with lower prices of fruits and vegetables, as anticipated.
He highlighted the drop in the cost of chayote, green beans, chili peppers and tomatoes that had remained high. “For their part, energy prices registered an increase of 0.50% monthly,” explained a review by Iván Arias, director of analysis at the bank.
The annual non-core inflation rate decreased to 8.03% from 10.36% in July, so we project that headline inflation will maintain a downward trend and close 2024 at 4.4% annually, he explained.
“As we had anticipated, after the increases recorded in recent months, which were entirely due to the non-core component, annual inflation seems to be starting to ease. In particular, the increases in agricultural prices, the main source of the rise in inflation in previous months, have been the main cause of the increase in inflation.”
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2024-09-13 19:13:37