Posted 20 Dec. 2022 at 18:51Updated 20 Dec. 2022 at 19:24
The tensions at work in the health sector in France combined with high inflation could cause health insurance spending to skid against government forecasts, warns the High Council for the Financing of Social Protection (HCFiPS) in a note published last week.
Considering the peak of the health crisis as past, the government has forecast in the 2023 Social Security budget a decline in health spending next year by 1.2%. Excluding Covid, the spending target (Ondam) should however increase by 3.5%. A level below expected inflation (4.3%), which worries players in the sector. Beyond that, the executive has planned an increase in spending of 2.5% per year on average, until 2026.
Without going so far as to question the sincerity of the budget, the HCFiPs “questions” the “coherence” of these forecasts “with the current situation of the health sector”. In other words, even if the Covid-19 page turns, the executive risks having to put a lot more resources on the table than expected.
The government awaited on the “refoundation” of the system
Despite the plan to increase the remuneration of hospital caregivers and nursing homes with the “Ségur de la santé”, the hospital is still struggling to recruit, and professionals say they are overwhelmed. The government is also under pressure to facilitate French access to a doctor at a time of medical deserts.
Strikes and arrests bear witness to this: professionals are waiting for strong measures. Especially since the executive has promised to “refound” the system, relying on the National Council for Refoundation (CNR) in health, a vast exercise of consultations with professionals and citizens carried out throughout the territory.
The impact of inflation in question
Liberal doctors are firmly waiting for an increase in the price of their consultation. The negotiations started a few weeks ago on the subject with the Health Insurance are supposed to be completed at the beginning of next year. To maintain the pressure, unions have again called in recent days for the closing of cabinets, especially during the Christmas holidays.
In this context, the High Council emphasizes that inflation will drive up health spending. Not only does it push to better revalue health professionals, but it also weighs on the fixed costs of health establishments. The government has thus agreed to offset part of the effects of inflation for hospitals under the last budget.
“In the past, Ondam has always progressed more rapidly than prices, even if the differential could be minor in certain years”, underlines the HCFiPS. “The inflationary episode that the French economy is currently going through could require a revision of the Ondam in relation to its initial construction”, further notes the High Council.