2023-08-10 17:11:29
Inflation in the United States is increasing only slightly, fueling hopes on the financial markets that interest rate hikes will come to an end. Consumer prices rose 3.2 percent in July after 3 percent in June, the Labor Department said in Washington on Thursday.
However, experts surveyed by the Reuters news agency had a stronger increase to 3.3 percent on the slip. The US Federal Reserve wants to curb inflation and make it dependent on the available data whether or not to raise interest rates further in September. After the data, speculation increased on the futures markets that the end of the road for interest rate hikes had been reached.
core rate down
There, the probability of further tightening of monetary policy this year is only estimated at 25 percent. When looking at the fresh inflation figures, the currency watchdogs around Fed boss Jerome Powell pay particular attention to the so-called core rate, which excludes the volatile prices for energy and food. That rate fell slightly to 4.7 percent in July. Economists had expected 4.8 percent.
Compared to the previous month, there was a moderate increase of 0.2 percent – just as economists had expected: This growth probably does not put the US Federal Reserve under pressure to raise interest rates further, says Helaba expert Ulrich Wortberg.
However, economist Bastian Hepperle from Hauck Aufhäuser Lampe Privatbank does not see any rapid progress on the inflation front for the central bank: “By the September Fed meeting, the inflationary pressure will not have decreased far enough to be able to announce the end of the interest rate hikes. A rate hike is therefore still in the air.” The core rate allows conclusions to be drawn about the fundamental inflation trends and is therefore very important for the Fed.
Winand von Petersdorff-Campen, Washington Published/Updated: , Recommendations: 23 Published/Updated: Recommendations: 26 Daniel Mohr Published/Updated: , Recommendations: 44
The Fed recently raised the interest rate range to 5.25 to 5.50 percent. Different signals have recently come from the group of monetary watchdogs as to how to proceed: According to Director Michelle Bowman, further interest rate hikes are likely to be necessary to tame inflation. The head of the Atlanta Fed District, Raphael Bostic, recently saw no more need for increases.
The inflation data hit big waves, especially on the US bond market. The return on ten-year US bonds fell to 3.995 percent after 4.030 percent in return for the rising price. Investors on the stock market, on the other hand, were relaxed. The Dax and the EuroStoxx50 were more or less at the level before the publication with a plus of 0.5 and one percent respectively.
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