At the beginning of the austral winter, cases have exceeded the average of the last 5 years and hospitalizations are also in line. Phenomenon due to the closure of the borders for Covid or a prelude to a particularly heavy flu season here too?
The cases of flu in Australia this year they are increasing at much higher than average levels. Winter starts in June, so just an indication for now, but it might be useful to follow the trend in this country because it usually anticipates the flu trend of the northern hemisphere.
Highest reports in the last 5 years
According to the Australian Department of Health report, since mid-April 2022 the weekly number of influenza notifications (laboratory confirmed) has exceeded the average of the last 5 years. The calculations must be made on many previous years, because in 2020 and 2021 there was practically no flu season because Australia had closed its borders or practiced quarantine at the entrance due to Covid. The highest notification rates from January to May 29 were in age groups 20-64 years (46%) and 10-19 years (33%). In the graph below of laboratory confirmed cases, the recent years of flu since 2017: the current one already marks steep growth and even in advance.
Confirmation from hospitalizations
Obviously the data change from week to week and still early to say if it will be a season equal to that of 2017 (particularly important). The known viral strain that drives the infections: strain A, called H3N2. The growth of cases confirmed by the parallel increase in hospitalizationsalmost identical to 2019 and higher than 2017 and what one would normally expect in Australia in June.
Surely the advent of Covid has led to a enhancement of the ability to perform laboratory tests (and thus find cases): many equipment used for swabs can be passed to the test for the flu virus, but if you look at the rate of positivity (which measures the cases in relation to the tests made) in the sentinel laboratories, it is noted that this is rising parallel to the increase in cases. There is also a rapid increase in reports for Synchitial Respiratory Virus (RSV), adenovirus, rhinovirus, enterovirus.
What does it portend?
Some see this as a result of the diminished immunity of the population during the closing of the borders. Others like the harbinger of a major winter flu season in the Northern Hemisphere. always difficult to predict – commented on his blog Ian M. Mackay, virologist and associate professor at the University of Queensland -. The Northern Hemisphere could recover all these slightly modified viruses from Australia and there could be a big winter with SARS-CoV2 and flu, but too early to tell.
June 9, 2022 (change June 9, 2022 | 12:02 pm)
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