The world’s leading flu experts gathered this week to discuss the dangers of bird flu to humans. In recent months, a variant of the H5N1 virus has caused a record number of bird deaths worldwide.
The group of scientists, regulators and vaccine manufacturers meets twice a year to decide which variant of the seasonal flu will be included in next winter’s flu vaccine, in this case for the Northern Hemisphere.
The meeting also provides an opportunity to discuss the risk of animal viruses spreading to humans and causing a pandemic. At this week’s meeting, the H5N1 virus was a major topic of conversation.
“We are better prepared (than before Covid-19, ed.), but even if we are better prepared, we are not yet sufficiently prepared,” said Sylvie Briand, World Health Organization (WHO) director for global infection preparedness, prior to to the meeting. “We really need to continue efforts for a flu pandemic.”
Worrying increase among mammals
In a post-meeting briefing, Briand said the recent increase in cases in birds and mammals was “concerning” and that the agency was working with Cambodia after two confirmed human cases of H5N1 were identified in one family there. It is being investigated whether the family members were exposed to the virus via the environment – for example via birds or other mammals – or whether there was human-to-human transmission.
According to some experts, the virus would first have to mutate before it can pass from person to person.
Experts have been monitoring the recent variant of H5N1 since this variant emerged in 2020. A string of recent reports of massive deaths in infected mammals, from sea lions to bears, and a possible mammal-to-mammal transmission at a Spanish mink farm last year, is deeply concerning.
However, the number of human cases is still very small and the WHO currently rates the risk to humans as low.
Vaccine development
The attendees also discussed the possible development of a vaccine. Laboratories associated with the WHO already possess two strains of flu that are closely related to the circulating H5N1 virus that vaccine manufacturers can use to produce a vaccine for humans.
A number of companies that produce seasonal flu vaccines may also produce vaccines against a pandemic flu. For example, GSK and CSL Seqirus are already working with the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) in the US to test vaccines based on one of the variants.
Once these strains are ready, vaccine development could take about two months, Briand said. However, developing vaccines quickly enough in the event of a pandemic remains a challenge, experts say.
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