Uploaded after 5 years… Causes of troop dispatch to North Korea and martial law
“After Trump took office, additional defense spending was requested.
“There are concerns about provocation from North Korea due to the growing theory of South Korea’s nuclear armament.”
The International Crisis Group (ICG), a think tank specializing in international disputes headquartered in Brussels, Belgium, included the ‘Korean Peninsula’ in the ‘Top 10 Conflict Areas to Watch in 2025’ announced on the 1st. ICG said, “With many things in flux, the Korean Peninsula will face 2025 in a tense year.” This is the first time since 2020 that the ICG has selected the Korean Peninsula as a major conflict area.
ICG explained that tensions on the Korean Peninsula increased last year as North Korea defined South Korea as its “main enemy.” North Korea’s abandonment of its peace and unification policy and the abolition of the September 19 Inter-Korean Military Agreement were also mentioned. At the same time, North Korea’s sending troops to the Ukraine war to help Russia also raised tensions on the Korean Peninsula. ICG pointed out the possibility that Russian fighter jet and missile technology could be transferred to North Korea and said, “It will become easier for North Korea to penetrate the defense networks of the United States and Asia.” It was also pointed out that in this tense situation, there is no line of communication between North and South Korea. ICG expressed concern that “the severance of all relations, including communication between the two countries, leaves few options to manage the situation.”
In addition, the growing political chaos in Korea due to President Yoon Seok-yeol’s declaration of martial law in December last year and the subsequent passage of the impeachment bill by the National Assembly was also mentioned as a background for placing it in a global conflict zone. He also emphasized that uncertainty in U.S. foreign policy will increase once U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who is skeptical of alliances, takes office. In particular, the ICG predicted that Trump may demand additional sharing of defense costs once he takes office, and that “this could promote ‘our own nuclear armament theory’ in South Korea, and there is a possibility that America’s vague defense pledges may provoke North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.” Although it is unlikely that Chairman Kim will launch an all-out war, it is also predicted that there is a possibility of some form of provocation due to misjudgment.
ICG selects and announces the top 10 conflict sites of note at the end of each year or at the beginning of the year. This year, in addition to the Korean Peninsula, three new places that were not on last year’s list were added: △Syria, △Iran vs. the United States/Israel, and △the U.S.-Mexico. It was believed that ‘Ukraine’ could be expanded to ‘Ukraine and Europe in general’, thereby broadening the ‘front line’.
Reporter Yunjin Kim [email protected]
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