Interpretation Are the Russian war drums already roaring?

by time news

“Russian war drums are already thundering,” one of the world’s most important news agencies wrote this week. Maybe it’s an exaggeration and maybe not. It is possible that Vladimir Putin has not yet decided what to do with Ukraine, and may have decided and he is taking time to examine Western reactions, and also to prepare public opinion in Russia for the possibility of war.

Not that public opinion in Russia is a decisive factor, but still we are not in the Stalin era.

Speaking of Stalin: What Soviet Soviet dictator wanted from Little Finland and why he started the Winter War on November 30, 1939, right on the eve of World War II. Stalin needed Finland to defend Leningrad, St. Petersburg. Petersburg, from a German invasion, and therefore attacked Finland.

In the Far East, Russia has set its sights on distant islands, some of which are uninhabited, that will protect Russia’s northeastern part. Russia has always aspired to conquer, take over and control the three small Baltic states but the strategies of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia as a security belt against Poland and Germany.

The USSR-style takeover also means the settlement of millions of Russians in the small Baltic states, similar to the many Russian-speakers in eastern Ukraine today. Thus it can be argued that parts of those countries are in fact Russia.

Russian tradition demands that the huge state be always surrounded and protected by a formidable protective belt, buffer zones and states that will separate the Russian kingdom, tsarist, communist or Putin, from the West, which is traditionally hostile and rival.

The tension is rising

Military events in Europe and around Ukraine have certainly escalated this week: a cyber attack to paralyze Ukraine, Russian and European naval movements across the Baltic Sea, fresh news that the Russians are moving large landings, each capable of carrying more than ten tanks and more than 300 fighters.

US, British, Danish and Swedish navies and planes are also patrolling the area. US intelligence is convinced that the Russians are planning a military provocation that will serve as a pretext or excuse for an attack. Appropriate military. “And things have always been this way: this is exactly how Nazi Germany prepared the invasion of Poland as a prelude to World War II.

In Kazakhstan, Putin contented himself with “demonstrating capabilities”: there were riots and demonstrations, Putin sent 2,500 “international” intervention force soldiers there who sat there for several days and the house was returned. Just to show the world ‘what I, Putin, can do very quickly’. Usually a Russian army entering an area or country would not soon leave, but in this case Putin should have “shown presence” and folded.

Do not worry, from Syria it does not fold quickly because it does not occur to him to give up the air and sea bases, Tartus and Latakia on the shores of the eastern Mediterranean.

So what does Putin want in Ukraine? Experts are always of the opinion that Putin’s considerations, which are always rational for his method, also stem from his traditional Russian worldview, which says that Ukraine actually belongs to Russia, the current structure of Europe versus Russia is unbearable, the West hostile.

The takeover of the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine and the annexation of the Crimean peninsula did not give him what he wanted – Ukraine under Russian sovereignty. We have compiled several opinion pieces that reflect views in the West on the issue at hand – what Putin is planning in his office in the Kremlin. FOREIGN AFFAIRS believes that in Putin’s opinion Russia must curb the spread of NATO to the east and not necessarily annex territories.

At the end of 2021, Russia presented a series of demands to the West and the United States: halting the spread of NATO to Eastern Europe, freezing the construction of bases and military installations and weapons systems in formerly Russian-controlled territories (such as missile batteries in Poland), halting US military aid to Ukraine .

The Washington Post states: Putin demands guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO.

Russian program

Commentators of the NFR radio station in the US: Putin has an orderly program with four clauses: 1. Guarantees that Ukraine will never be a member of NATO because this country is ‘the historical continuation of Russia’, part of the Russian Empire and in the field of Russian influence ever since.

2. There is no foothold for NATO in Eastern Europe. 3. Prohibition on placing missiles within range of attack capability. 4. Granting autonomy to Eastern Ukraine and guaranteeing full rights for Russian speakers in the Donbass region.

The BBC reports four days ago: CIA Director William Burns says Putin is deploying his army in a way that will allow him to act very quickly. The BBC reports that Moscow is repeating that the West is filling Ukraine with weapons, ammunition and military equipment .

Moscow is demanding that NATO return to its borders as they were until 1997, as Russia has since joined the organization, which Russia believes endangers its security, such as the three Baltic states, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and several other countries that have always had linguistic ties. Religious or national to Mother Russia.

A source close to the US intelligence service told CNN that there were signs that Russian government officials were no longer dealing with “if they invade” theories, but had been instructed to prepare and plan an invasion. In recent days a new Russian argument has emerged: Russia needs a land bridge between Ukraine and the Crimean peninsula, and Ukraine stands in the way.

In Ukraine they are hopefully waiting for a date, in about eight weeks, when the plains and ice roads will melt and tanks will not be able to move on ice roads that will become impenetrable mud traps. Ask the German armor in World War II.

Will invade or not and when and how and what will the plan be, and how will the world react. The answer lies in Putin’s mind, and as is well known, it is difficult and dangerous to guess the intentions of leaders.

It seems that when Putin consults himself and wonders what to do, there is a mix of two elements within him: a Russian who knows how his nation has run since Empress Yekaterina the Great and a Torah who studied and memorized well during his years as a senior KGB officer in Russia and East Germany.

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