Image source, EPA
Iran’s attacks on Pakistan sparked protests in Islamabad, the Pakistani capital.
A new focus of tension opened this week in the Middle East.
Iran and Pakistan, two neighboring weapons powers, attacked specific targets on either side of their borders, sparking international concern about a broader conflict in the region.
The events occur in a week in which Iran carried out military operations in three different countries: Syria, Iraq and Pakistanand in a conflictive context in various parts of the region.
Israel is at war with the Palestinian group Hamas in Gaza and exchanges frequent fire with the Iran-backed Hezbollah group in Lebanon.
Other Iranian-backed groups in Iraq and Syria have attacked US military targets.
On the other hand, the United States and the United Kingdom are leading a campaign of operations against Houthi rebels in Yemen, also backed by Iran, who have been attacking commercial ships in the Red Sea.
BBC Mundo explains it to you in three keys the new front of tension between Iran and Pakistan that adds more fuel to the fire in this turbulent area.
1. Why tension between Iran and Pakistan increased
Image source, EPA
Reciprocal armed attacks by Iran and Pakistan raised concerns about a larger conflict in the Middle East.
The Iranian-Pakistani exchange broke out last Tuesday, when Iran attacked targets linked to militant group in Balochistan provincein western Pakistan.
Two children were killed and three others wounded in the attack, according to Pakistani officials.
Iran insisted that its target was not Pakistani citizens, but only Jaish al-Adlan ethnic Baloch Sunni group that has organized attacks in Iran and against Pakistani government forces in the past.
Jaish al Adl has claimed responsibility for several attacks against Iranian security forces in the past (mainly in Sistan-Baluchistan province), and Iran claims it has backing from the United States and Israel.
But Pakistan’s government considered the Iranian air operation an “illegal act and an unprovoked violation of its airspace.” It warned it could lead to “serious consequences”.
In addition, it withdrew its ambassador to Iran and for the moment vetoed the Iranian ambassador from returning to his country.
This Thursday, Pakistan responded by launching missiles against “terrorist hideouts” inside Iranian territoryin the border province of Sistan and Balochistan, where at least nine people died according to reports from Iranian state media.
The Pakistani military said that based on intelligence information, it had attacked bases of the Balochistan Liberation Army and the Balochistan Liberation Front in Iran, groups accused of terrorist activities inside Pakistan.
They explained that suicide drones, rockets, missiles and other weapons were used in this operation, and that extreme precautions were taken to avoid “collateral damage.”
Similar to the justifications offered by Iran, Pakistan emphasized that the purpose of its attack was “in pursuit of its own security and national interest” and that it “respected the sovereignty and territorial integrity” of its neighbor.
2. What are relations between Iran and Pakistan like?
The Iranian attack occurred on the same day that Pakistan’s prime minister and Iran’s foreign minister met in Davos, while the Iranian and Pakistani armies held joint military exercises in the Gulf.
Iran and Pakistan share a 900 kilometer border and security on both sides is a long-standing concern for both governments.
In an interview with the BBC, Robert Macaire, former UK ambassador to Iran, described the Balochistan region, which is divided between the two countries, as a “lawless” zone where drug smuggling groups are responsible for thousands of murders.
Image source, Reuters
Analysts describe relations between Iran and Pakistan as delicate but cordial.
Iran and Pakistan have accused each other in the past of harboring radical militant groups for years that carry out attacks against each other in their border areas.
In 2017, Pakistan said an Iranian drone was shot down because it was inside Pakistani territory, and in 2014 Iranian security forces crossed the border to pursue suspected extremist militants.
Analysts describe the relations between both countries as delicate, but cordial.
“It is never a good sign when two countries exchange attacks like these, especially when it comes to two large and influential nations like Iran and Pakistan, but despite the chaos, civilian casualties and heated rhetoric, This doesn’t seem like a real crisis.“, analyzed Paul Adams, BBC diplomatic correspondent.
Following the operations, “both sides seemed eager to emphasize that these did not represent attacks on a neighboring nation,” Adams added.
The BBC Urdu service says that the historical relations between both countries have gone through ups and downs.
Iran was the first country to recognize Pakistan as an independent state in 1947 and Tehran supported Pakistan in its war against India in 1965.
“There are deep cultural and historical ties between both sides, with a strong legacy of commercial relations,” Michael Kugelman, director for South Asia at the Wilson Center, tells BBC Mundo.
“And there have also been marked policy convergences, from plans (never fulfilled) to build a joint gas pipeline to Iran’s expressions of support for Pakistan’s position on the Kashmir dispute with India,” Kugelman adds.
However, after the Iranian Islamic revolution in 1979, Pakistan approached Saudi ArabiaIran’s rival.
And this has posed a “geopolitical obstacle in the expansion of cooperation between Iran and Pakistan,” analyzes Kugelman.
“Over the last few years, Iran has also been accused by Pakistani authorities of recruiting young people for sectarian organisations,” they point out from the BBC Urdu service.
3. How the tension between Iran and Pakistan affects the crisis in the Middle East
Building on the legacy of cordial relations that Kugelman points to, the analyst finds it “more shocking that Iran has carried out a unilateral attack on Pakistan on an unprecedented scale.”
Analysts say that Pakistan’s response to Iran’s actions not surprising and they are equated with the Iranian version that they are specific attacks against insurgent groups.
“Pakistan’s response raises the risk of escalation but also presents an opportunity to turn back the abyss. In effect, both sides are now tied,” Kugelman says.
Other commentators suggested that Iran’s attacks in Syria, Iraq and Pakistan were motivated by the current turbulent dynamics of the Middle East.
Tehran says it does not want to get involved in a larger conflict, although militant groups of its call “resistance axis”which includes Houthi militants in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon and various groups in Syria and Iraq, have attacked Israel and its allies to show solidarity with the Palestinians.
Image source, EPA
Analysts attributed Iran’s attacks to a show of force after 84 people were killed in a suicide attack on the fourth anniversary of the death of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani.
Jiyar Gol, a journalist with the BBC Persian service, said this is a time when Iran has an interest in showing strength.
“And demonstrate to its population that acts of violence such as the recent suicide attack that killed 84 people during the fourth anniversary ceremony of the death of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani will not go unpunished.”
Similarly, analyzing Iran’s attacks in Iraq and Syria, Gol also thinks that Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard It wants to demonstrate the ability of its missiles to reach territories where the United States, Israel and other foreign forces have strategic bases.
Regarding Pakistan, “Iran surely knew it had to respond. Both sides have lived up to their honor and, perhaps, responded to the demands of public opinion,” adds Adams.
However, Shashank Joshi, defense editor of the British magazine The Economisttold the BBC that while “this was not the first time there had been border tensions (between Iran and Pakistan),” it was “by far the most serious escalation of tensions in memory”.
For his part, Baqir Sajjad, a journalist and analyst from Pakistan, believes that tension between the two countries may increase further in the future.
Sajjad told the BBC that “tensions between the two countries appear unlikely to suddenly ease following Pakistan’s counterattack against Iran-based militants.”
“Hardliners in Iran will insist on retaliating against Pakistan. The growing mistrust between the two countries could fuel a new wave of militancy between Iran and Pakistan in the Balochistan region, further complicating the already complex security situation in the region”.
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