Gulf Arab states are increasingly alarmed by the growing threat of attacks from Iran-backed militias and proxy groups, a concern heightened by the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. A joint statement issued this week by Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan condemned Iranian attacks on their soil, both direct strikes and those carried out through proxies, signaling a unified front against escalating regional instability. The situation is particularly sensitive as these nations host significant U.S. Military presence and maintain close ties with Washington.
The anxieties aren’t merely rhetorical. Kuwait recently announced it had thwarted a plot to assassinate state leaders, arresting six individuals allegedly linked to Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group and political party widely considered a proxy of Iran. This incident, coupled with a surge in internal security incidents across the Gulf region, underscores a tangible escalation in Iran’s willingness to project power through non-state actors. The potential for these groups to destabilize Gulf regimes and further ignite the wider Middle East conflict is now a central preoccupation for regional leaders.
A History of Proxy Warfare
For decades, Iran has strategically employed proxy militias as a cornerstone of its foreign and security policy. This approach serves multiple purposes: exporting its revolutionary ideology, expanding regional influence, and destabilizing perceived adversaries. Beyond Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen – groups that have repeatedly demonstrated their capacity for regional disruption – Iran maintains relationships with numerous other armed factions operating in Iraq and Syria. These groups, often operating under the umbrella of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), provide Iran with deniability and a cost-effective means of exerting pressure without direct military confrontation.
The Houthis, formally known as Ansar Allah, confirmed on Friday they launched a missile strike targeting Israel, marking the first time the group has publicly acknowledged direct involvement in the conflict. As reported by The Guardian, U.S. Officials anticipate Iran’s current operation in the region will conclude within weeks, though the situation remains fluid.
Escalation Following Strikes on Iran
Although a period of relative calm existed between Iran and Gulf states like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar in recent years – marked by diplomatic openings and a degree of rapprochement – these proxy groups remained a latent threat. However, since the reported U.S. And Israeli strikes against Iranian targets in late February, the Gulf states have become the primary focus of Iran’s retaliatory measures. This has manifested in a barrage of missiles and drones launched from Iran, as well as a noticeable increase in incidents involving Iran-backed militias within Gulf nations themselves.
These internal incidents are fueling fears that Iran may be activating “sleeper cells” – pre-positioned operatives – to carry out attacks within the Gulf states. Qatar recently announced the arrest of two cells, involving over ten individuals, linked to the Iranian regime. Bahrain followed suit, arresting individuals accused of espionage for Iran. Kuwait’s foiled assassination plot, linked to Hezbollah, further illustrates this growing concern.
Regional Response and Iraqi Concerns
The joint statement from the Gulf states explicitly called on the Iraqi government to take “necessary measures” to halt attacks launched by factions and militias operating within Iraqi territory. These groups have long been accused of destabilizing the region and have proven particularly devastating to Iraq’s own security apparatus. The statement underscores the Gulf states’ frustration with Iraq’s perceived inability – or unwillingness – to rein in these groups.
Bilal Saab, senior managing director of the Trends US thinktank and a former Pentagon official, warned of a worst-case scenario: Iran activating its sleeper cells and Shia militia movements across the region should the conflict escalate. “We haven’t seen them act on the threat fully yet, but there are some signs of dormant cells becoming active and getting arrested in states like Kuwait and the UAE,” Saab said. He added that the greatest fear among Gulf leaders is a situation mirroring Iraq, where Iran-backed groups have become so deeply entrenched they operate as a “state within a state.”
Saudi Arabia, which has experienced attacks from Iran-backed groups like Hezbollah al-Hejaz in the past, and Bahrain, which has long accused Iran of cultivating proxy cells within its borders, are particularly vulnerable. Saudi Arabia also remains engaged in the ongoing conflict with the Houthis in Yemen, adding another layer of complexity to the regional security landscape.
Analysts emphasize that the current level of threat from Iranian proxies, while serious, does not yet approach the intensity seen during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, when militant cells actively targeted Kuwait and operated within Saudi Arabia. However, they caution that the risk will continue to grow the longer the current conflict with Iran persists.
Looking Ahead
The Gulf states are now navigating a precarious balance: attempting to deter further Iranian aggression while avoiding actions that could trigger a wider regional war. Increased security measures, diplomatic pressure on Iraq, and close coordination with the United States are all likely to be central to their strategy. The next key development to watch will be the Iraqi government’s response to the Gulf states’ demands to curb the activities of Iran-backed militias within its borders. A failure to address these concerns could further escalate tensions and draw the region closer to a broader conflict.
This is a developing story, and we encourage readers to share their perspectives and insights in the comments below.
