The death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, confirmed Monday, throws the country into a period of uncertainty as the Islamic Republic prepares for a delicate succession process. The transition comes at a time of heightened regional tensions, following a 12-day war between Israel and Iran in June 2025, and raises questions about the future direction of Iran’s domestic and foreign policies. The process of selecting a latest supreme leader will be closely watched both within Iran and internationally, as this figure holds ultimate authority over all matters of state.
The succession is governed by a complex system outlined in Iran’s constitution. The responsibility for choosing the next supreme leader falls to the Assembly of Experts, an 88-member body comprised entirely of Shiite clerics. These clerics are popularly elected every eight years, though their candidacies are vetted and approved by the Guardian Council, a powerful constitutional watchdog known for disqualifying candidates, including former President Hassan Rouhani in March 2024, according to reports.
A Council in Transition
The Assembly of Experts’ primary duty is to appoint the supreme leader, and it also possesses the authority – though never exercised – to remove one from office. The current chairman of the Assembly of Experts is Mohammad-Ali Movahedi Kermani, who assumed the role in May 2024, with Hashem Hosseini Bushehri serving as First Deputy Chairman and Alireza Arafi as Second Deputy Chairman. The composition of the Assembly currently leans heavily towards Principlists (59 members), with a single Reformist and 26 Independents, alongside two vacant seats, according to the latest available data.
Temporary Leadership and Potential Delays
Iranian law stipulates that the Assembly of Experts “must, as soon as possible” select a new supreme leader. However, recognizing the potential for delays in reaching a consensus, the constitution provides for a temporary leadership council to assume the duties of the office in the interim. This council would be comprised of the president, the head of the judiciary, and a member of the Guardian Council, chosen by the Expediency Council, which advises the supreme leader. Currently, that would imply a council consisting of President Masoud Pezeshkian and judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei.
The Question of a Successor
Identifying a clear frontrunner to succeed Khamenei is proving difficult, particularly after the death of Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash in May 2024. Raisi had been widely considered a potential successor, favored by hardliners. Now, attention has turned to Mojtaba Khamenei, the 56-year-old son of the late supreme leader. Although Mojtaba is a cleric, he lacks experience in government positions, raising questions about his qualifications and the potential for public backlash against a dynastic succession. Some observers suggest a father-to-son transfer could be viewed as un-Islamic and reminiscent of the pre-1979 monarchy, potentially fueling discontent among both critics of the clerical establishment and its supporters.
The Assembly of Experts’ deliberations will undoubtedly be conducted behind closed doors, making it challenging to gauge the dynamics at play. The influence of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a powerful paramilitary force designated a terrorist organization by the United States in 2019, will also be a significant factor. Khamenei significantly empowered the IRGC during his tenure, and the organization’s extensive wealth and influence within Iran and across the Middle East – through its “Axis of Resistance” network – cannot be ignored.
A Historic Transition
This marks only the second time in the history of the Islamic Republic, established after the 1979 revolution, that the position of supreme leader has become vacant. The first transition occurred in 1989, following the death of Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the figurehead of the revolution and leader during the Iran-Iraq War. The current transition unfolds against a backdrop of ongoing regional instability and the recent conflict with Israel, adding further complexity to an already sensitive situation.
The supreme leader wields immense power within Iran’s theocratic system, serving as commander-in-chief of the armed forces and holding final say over all matters of state. The selection of a new leader will therefore have profound implications for Iran’s domestic policies, its foreign relations, and its role in the region.
The Assembly of Experts is expected to convene in the coming weeks to begin the process of selecting a new supreme leader. Further updates will be provided as they become available.
This is a developing story. Readers seeking support during times of uncertainty can find resources at the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA) National Helpline.
