2023-06-12 23:54:46
Iranian Mohajer-6 drones, equipped with air-to-ground attack capabilities, could prove lethal in the Ukrainian conflict. Also supplied by Iran to Russia, delivery is suspected to be facilitated via civilian airlines and across the Caspian Sea, exploiting Western vulnerabilities and blind spots.
IIn this regard, the Jamestown Foundation reports that while the West is still contemplating the possibility of sending sophisticated unmanned drones (UAVs) to Ukraine, such as the Reaper and the Predator, Moscow and Tehran are taking a step forward to strengthen unmanned aerial capabilities pilot of Russia and tilt the balance of power in Russia’s favor on the battlefield.
The US Think Thank reports that through an “out-of-the-box” approach and carefully engineered logistics that exploit the West’s vulnerabilities and loopholes, the Tehran-Moscow partnership is fast becoming a threat that could become a permanent presence in the backyard of home of NATO. Following Russia’s latest attacks that have sought to target critical military infrastructure and stockpiles of equipment and munitions awaiting use in Ukraine’s counter-offensive, open-source intelligence has revealed that Moscow’s attack package on Ukraine now includes Iran’s Mohajer-6 (( Twitter/@clashreport- June 6)
The same foundation reports that in February, Western sources claimed Iran had smuggled drones to Russia to aid in its ongoing invasion of Ukraine. The Iranian press has also taken up these allegations ( Iran International , February 13). Tehran’s generous package would include at least 18 advanced UAVs, including Mohajer-6s, all 18 of which have air-to-ground strike capability ( Iranwire , February 13). Equipped with far more sophisticated capabilities than Iran’s single-strike kamikaze drones, these UAVs can quickly become highly lethal assets in the hands of the Russian military, which could significantly change the trajectory of the war in Ukraine in Russia’s favor.
The Mohajer-6 represents a force multiplier in battle
These are the specifications of the Iranian combat drone as described by the Jamestown Foundation: manufactured by the state-owned Qods Aviation Industries, the Mohajer-6 is a medium-range (1200 miles) combat drone with intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities ) (Iribnews.ir, January 7, 2022). It can carry laser-guided munitions and offer its operator sophisticated air-to-ground attack capabilities. Unlike the single Shahed-136 currently used by the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine, the Mohajer-6 is a multipurpose drone that can return to its home base after any attack, providing a much more sustainable and flexible CONOPS (concept of operations). Furthermore, with its low production cost and high efficiency, the Mohajer-6 is an important asset for any force that needs high-performance and cost-effective UAVs, such as Russia ( Iran Press1 January 2022)..
In the past, Mohajer-6 has supported various Iranian state-linked entities and proxy groups in different ways. Currently, it is actively used by the Iranian Navy and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). According to US intelligence, an IRGC-operated Mohajer-6 was shot down while en route to Erbil in the Kurdish region of Iraq in September 2022 ( United States Central Command , 28 September 2022). . The IRGC also used the Mohajer-6 in the mountainous areas of the border region between Iraqi Kurdistan and Kurds against Kurdish insurgents ( Tasnim News , 12 July 2019). The IRGC has derived other operational benefits from Mohajer-6 in surveillance and intelligence gathering on militant groups, such as the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), as well as managing traffic and border security.
Mohajer-6 is also rapidly proliferating among Tehran proxy groups in different conflict zones.
Open-source intelligence suggests that Iranian-backed militant groups, such as Lebanese Hezbollah, have a stockpile of more than 2,000 drones ( Al Mayadeen , December 23, 2021).. This includes advanced drones, and potentially the Mohajer-6. Hezbollah is also known to work closely with the IRGC, which increases the likelihood that Hezbollah will have access to the group’s drone program and capabilities ( Gulf International Forum , 18 October 2022). Based in Yemen, the Houthis frequently resort to the use of Iranian drones, such as in attacks on Israeli and Saudi targets, such as oil tankers off the coast of Abu Dhabi (Twitter/ adityarajkaul, January 17, 2022). As a critical asset in the hands of Tehran’s militiamen, the Mohajer-6 has become a serious force multiplier for Iran’s proxies.
Used in battle on various fronts
The Institute of International Affairs itself reports that in addition to its active use by insurgent groups, the Mohajer-6 has also entered the arsenal of various countries and has multiple operating states. Indeed, the UAV has been battle-tested on various fronts and entered state stockpiles in Ethiopia, Iraq, Syria and Venezuela. In Ethiopia, Addis Ababa is using the Mohajer-6 in its fight against rebels in Tigray ( Military Africa August 27, 2021).. And in Venezuela, the UAV was spotted in a live speech by President Maduro on the future production of multi-role drones ( Twitter November 20, 2020).. In the hands of governments with friendly ties to Tehran, these drones can significantly disrupt the balance of power and the security environment in any given region.
Also, according to open source intelligence, after Syria and Yemen, the next performance test of the Mohajer-6 drones will take place on the battlefield in Ukraine, where these drones were already seen in the first months of the Russian invasion ( Defence of Ukraine , October 3, 2022). and where the first Mohajer-6 was shot down by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Odessa at the end of September ( General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine October 7, 2022).. These drones represent a key asset for Russia, as they fill important operational gaps in its military equipment, providing support for advanced surveillance and intelligence gathering on Ukrainian military positions, as well as support for drone offensives suicide bomber Shahed-136.
Jamestown highlights how the Mohajer-6s help fill the gap in the rapidly depleting Russian air fleet ( Oryx , March 20, 2022), providing a cost-effective alternative to expensive Russian-made drone programs. Furthermore, the Foundation points out that the intensive use of these drones could put a strain on the Ukrainian air defenses already busy managing Iranian stray munitions attacks. This could lead to a complicated situation for military defenses and pose a major problem for Ukrainian decision makers.
Regarding the routes that Iran uses for exports to friendly countries, it is revealed that there are two potential transit routes of the Mohajer-6: the first concerns the transfer via civilian airlines, a neglected conventional route, while the second concerns the transport across the Caspian Sea, a more unconventional and creative way ( Iran Wire , February 13). However, regardless of the route used, Russia has an advantage in terms of operational security, because it is difficult for Ukraine to follow the movements of the Mohajer-6 and related delivery systems. This poses a significant challenge to Ukrainian defense capabilities already under great strain due to the ongoing conflict. Despite the operational complexities, Ukraine demonstrates its determination to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity and will do everything possible to counter the current threat posed by the military capabilities of Russia and its allies.
In the past, Iran has leveraged its civilian airlines to transfer weapons and military personnel to conflict zones such as Syria and Yemen, using Mahan Air and Iran Air, known for their support of military groups such as the IRGC and the Quds Force ( Iran International , 15 December 2022). US intelligence agencies also allege Iranian involvement in “secret flights” to Russian military compounds (Forbes, November 16, 2022).
In further proof of Iran’s use of aerial means for drone attacks, the Jamestown Foundation cites the Yemen war, where Mahan Air built “an air bridge between Iran and Yemen to transfer weapons to Houthi delegates in 2015 ( Al Masdar, February 4, 2022). US intelligence agencies say Iran has made about 70 covert flights to military complexes at Russian airports. These older aircraft (mostly 747s) belonged to the IRGC, which has raised the possibility that Tehran is following a similar path to increase Russia’s capabilities against Ukraine ( Forbes , November 16, 2022). Although the West has sanctioned these airlines several times, the resurgence of this tactic in Ukraine shows that the current policy still has loopholes.
Continuing, the institute speculates that in Ukraine, the transfer channel could be through the Caspian Sea. According to Ukrainian intelligence, Iran had planned to transfer the disassembled Shahed-136, Mohajer-6 and Arash-2 drones through this channel (Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, November 1, 2022). Even though the West has imposed sanctions on these airlines, these tactics still appear to be in use. Russia could then use this route to increase its military capabilities in Ukraine. This would have a significant impact on Ukrainian air defenses and military personnel, further increasing Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian targets.
Finally, Jamestown concludes his analysis thus: “Russia’s use of Iranian Mohajer-6s in Ukraine will put severe pressure on Ukrainian air defenses and military personnel, already burdened by stray Iranian munitions. This further boost to Russia’s strike capabilities will also significantly increase Moscow’s aggression towards Ukrainian targets, including civilian infrastructure. However, this development should not only be read as an Iranian “success” but rather as an indicator of the West’s vulnerabilities in contested geopolitical hot spots.
(Jamestown Foundation www.jamestown.org)
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side note: The Jamestown Foundation (in English The Jamestown Foundation ) is a research and analytical institution, founded in 1984 as a support platform for Soviet dissidents and based in Washington . Today, its stated mission is to educate and inform American policymakers about such events and trends the institute deems of strategic importance to the United States. Most of the information collected by the Jamestown Foundation comes from first-hand local sources. (Wikipedia)
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